Master chats about hot topics:
Let's first interpret old Powell's speech today; in summary: if it weren't for old Trump messing with tariffs, the Fed would have already cut rates. The reason for not cutting rates now is due to the uncertainty being too great—cautious in July, open in September. In plain terms: I want to cut, but someone has to take the blame.
And what about the market? Everyone is playing dead, and the gold side is even more ridiculous; even when gas tanks are flying, it doesn't rise, with 3500 directly acting as a ceiling, indicating that funds do not believe in this wave of risk. It seems no one is taking the bait as the money has long run off to the stock market and crypto circle.
Back to the market, this Bitcoin movement could have seen a decrease in spot premium, and I thought we could get a decent pullback. Instead, it just ground up to the middle track, and as soon as the shorts raised their knives, the market slipped away.
Currently, it's a contract market rally, not a spot market sell-off. The divergence between contracts and spot is not a sign of peak but rather the bears are being lured. How many false breakouts and real liquidations have you not understood in the past two months? This wave is aimed at the short liquidity around 108K and 110K.
If the price steps on the middle track and does not break, then the next stop is likely to be 108K for liquidation, followed by a fake pullback to absorb new short positions and continue to push up to clear 110K. The only purpose of this play is to clean out the shorts, after which true fluctuation and decline may begin.
Everyone can take a look at the liquidation map; now the shorts below 108K are already piled up, and the bears are still fantasizing about holding their ground. This morning, stepping into the liquidation zone without exploding is the bears trying to save themselves, but how many times can they save themselves?
To summarize the conclusion, the thought process is very simple: do not short, be cautious when going long. If you want to short, wait for the price to break below the middle track and below 105K first; otherwise, you're just providing fuel.
The current market rhythm is like a broken top flying up; if you touch the top on the left side, you’re just providing fuel for others. Does everyone still remember how the bulls died last week? They kept buying at 103K until liquidation, and just after losing, the price rebounded.
Master sees the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 107500
First resistance level: 106800
Support level reference:
Second support level: 105900
First support level: 105400
A strong bullish line has formed, creating a rising wedge pattern. However, in the short term, it is more inclined towards a consolidation trend after fluctuation, rather than a direct peak signal. For short-term operations, it is advisable to pay attention to the support level below and look for opportunities to go long.
If it can effectively break through the first resistance level at 106.8K, it will break the upper limit of the wedge pattern and further make an accelerated rise. However, considering that the area around 107K is a short-term pressure zone.
If entering around 106K, the profit and loss are not ideal, as it is better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before considering entry. The first support at 105.9K is the previous high pressure area, which has now turned into short-term support and can serve as a reference point for pullbacks.
Currently in the 106K upper fluctuation range, it is possible that the price may falsely break below 105.9K in the short term, so it can be used in conjunction with the wedge's lower track position and the 20-day moving average trend as a trading reference.
6.25 Master’s segment plan:
Long entry position reference: Gradually long in the 105400-104400 range, target: 106800-107500
Short entry position reference: Gradually short in the 107500-108800 range, target: 105900-105400
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is full of performers; today’s long position screenshot, tomorrow’s short position summary looks like they are 'catching tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it’s all post-event analysis. A blogger worth following will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, not one that jumps in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and fragmented screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
