Today's market has two main factors. First, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has entered a relatively fragile ceasefire stage, and the market generally expects that the Strait of Hormuz will not be blocked, which continues yesterday's judgment. The addition of the ceasefire agreement has further eased market sentiment, driving the rise of BTC.
Secondly, the hearing attended by Powell provided relatively little information, which can be summarized as follows: the main reason for not cutting interest rates is the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs. A rate cut in July is almost off the table, but September may become a window for policy adjustment. The U.S. economy remains robust, with a strong labor market, and the Federal Reserve does not need to ease employment pressure through rate cuts.
Overall, as long as the ceasefire agreement does not break down and oil prices remain stable, the current trend of BTC is still optimistic, but caution is still needed regarding potential volatility brought by geopolitical risks.
