What is Bitcoin? What is the current status of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin, as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, is also the oldest cryptocurrency. It is based on the decentralized information technology construction of "blockchain" and has never been broken into by hackers for 15 years. Users around the world can safely Borderless and permissionless transfers through Bitcoin are a highly secure and convenient asset, known as "digital gold" among investors.
However, while Central and South America, Japan, South Korea and other regions and countries are improving Bitcoin-related regulations, the U.S. government, which accounts for more than 50% of global Bitcoin investment, is relatively lagging behind. If institutional investors want to buy Bitcoin , which needs to overcome many difficulties such as taxation, accounting, and compliance, so most choose to invest in Bitcoin mining-related stocks or Bitcoin futures ETFs and options commodities.
At the end of 2023, the Chicago Board of Trade CME became the world's largest Bitcoin options trading market. At the same time, CoinShares statistics showed that Bitcoin-related institutional products also saw a large inflow of funds, showing the high interest of major Wall Street institutions in Bitcoin. , but there is still no appropriate channel to buy coins.
What is a Bitcoin Spot ETF?
「比特幣現貨 ETF」與現存的「比特幣期貨 ETF」、「比特幣信託基金」不同，它是以比特幣現貨作為基礎，其購買量會實際影響到比特幣的市場價格，且提供用戶 1：1 等價現金贖回比特幣，某種意義上而言，用戶能透過此 ETF 買到真正的比特幣，此為後兩者無法所及。
（補充：由於交易波動大、時間受限，現貨 ETF 市場仍會存在價差，且用戶並不會直接持有比特幣，是由比特幣現貨 ETF 機構購買並託管至專責機構如 Coinbase。）
In addition, the "ETF" in Bitcoin spot ETF is the abbreviation of index fund, which means that investors can buy it in the general securities market. This provides institutions with a more suitable way to invest in Bitcoin than cryptocurrency exchanges. Regulatory channels may attract institutions that are already interested in Bitcoin to enter the market.
With the global asset management giant BlackRock also joining the application for Bitcoin spot ETF, Fidelity, Ark Investment iShares and other institutions will, after being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on January 11, 2024. On the first trading day of 2020, all walks of life are quite optimistic about the prospects of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
How Will a Bitcoin Spot ETF Impact Bitcoin Price?
It is true that Bitcoin fluctuated and even fell 24 hours after the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF. However, analysts from all walks of life have previously given predictions on the price of Bitcoin after the adoption of the ETF in 2024, and without exception, they are all bullish. .
Under the premise that the U.S. government SEC recognizes Bitcoin as a tradable "financial commodity," Wall Street institutions that provide Bitcoin ETFs can publicly promote Bitcoin to their customers. For example, before Bitwise was approved, it had already vowed to shoot advertisements, which may set off a large-scale wave of Bitcoin investment in the United States.
Back to reality, according to a report from Galaxy Digital in November last year, Bitcoin prices may rise by 6.2% within a month after the adoption of a Bitcoin spot ETF, and continue to rise by 74% within a year. Observing the listing history of gold ETFs in the past, we can find that after the approval of gold ETFs, the price fell by about 9% due to the "Sell the news" bullishness. After 8 months of consolidation, gold officially entered an upward cycle and became the highest. Mainstream investment products from Wall Street to the public. Amid optimistic estimates, analysts expect the same for Bitcoin spot ETFs.
What should I watch after the Bitcoin Spot ETF passes?
After the official adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the impact of U.S. institutional funds on Bitcoin prices is long-term. At the same time, Bloomberg analysts believe that the next step can be to focus on the "Ethereum Spot ETF" also led by BlackRock, which will allow institutions to purchase Ethereum through a more compliant and convenient channel. In addition, it is expected to debut in mid-2024. The Ethereum Cancun upgrade, these two pieces of good news may make Ethereum and the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem the next market focus.
In addition, many institutions such as Messari, Coinbase, and Binance respectively focus on AI, DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure), RWA (real world asset tokenization), DeSci (decentralized science), GameFi, and prediction. Narrative tracks such as the market may also shine in the prosperous 2024.
