1. Geopolitical risk escalation: Market logic under the shadow of war

  • The butterfly effect of the Israel-Iran conflict: Market consensus is clear; the current decline in the crypto market is mainly due to the military conflict between Iran and Israel. The more critical potential risk lies in the expectation of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — as a choke point for 20% of global oil transport, if Iran closes the strait, surging oil prices will directly trigger turmoil in global financial markets, and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, may first fall and then stabilize.

  • Multiple overlapping uncertainties: The expectation of the revival of Trump's tariff policy and the ongoing stalemate of the Russia-Ukraine war both pose 'black swan' risks. The current market is entirely driven by news; any sudden geopolitical news could trigger severe fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.

2. Core Market Driving Force: Fund injection is the only 'fuel'

  • Key signals for institutional entry: The last bull market, supported by retail investors' 'altcoin frenzy', ultimately collapsed. Historical lessons indicate that market conditions without institutional funding backing are difficult to sustain. Now, if we see institutions like Grayscale and MicroStrategy making large-scale purchases, combined with the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, it will signal the true onset of a 'crazy bull'.

  • The reshuffling effect of fund flows: The current market is in a 'de-bubbling phase'. Established projects that lack substantial ecological support may go to zero; however, quality projects with technological innovation (such as Layer 2 and true decentralized finance) will return to their peak in the reallocation of funds.

3. Survival rules on the eve of a bull market: Focus on quality targets and resist volatility shocks

  • Beware of the 'news market' trap: Geopolitical conflicts and tariff wars are ultimately short-term disturbances; don't let panic emotions lead to losses. Focus on two types of signals:
    ✅ Shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy (rate cuts, balance sheet expansion)
    ✅ Large inflows of on-chain funds (e.g., BTC net inflow exceeds $1 billion in a single day)

  • Upgraded deployment logic: Abandon the old mindset of 'randomly buying altcoins to earn passively', and focus on three major directions:
    ▶ Mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) — preferred choice for risk resistance
    ▶ Compliant stablecoins (such as the Hong Kong approved HKD stablecoin) — geopolitical hedging tool
    ▶ Ecologically active new narrative projects (such as cross-chain DeFi, AI + blockchain) — resilient targets in a bull market


Final reminder: The crypto market is undergoing a brutal reshuffle of 'distilling the true from the false', and short-term fluctuations are both risks and opportunities. Protect your principal and hold onto quality targets to earn the 'money within cognition' in the next bull market when institutions enter. (Investing carries high risks; decisions should be based on your own risk tolerance.)

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