On the morning of June 23, the Bitcoin market once again witnessed a showdown of whales, with a short position worth over $100 million quietly established, and the volatility caused by high-leverage operations instantly became the market focus. Meanwhile, another whale managed to turn losses into profits through prudent asset adjustment, forming a stark contrast.
Whales are building short positions, and market speculation is escalating.
According to on-chain tracking, renowned trader AguilaTrades established a short position of up to 1000.82 BTC at 01:50 on June 23, using 20x leverage, corresponding to a nominal value of nearly $100 million, with an opening price of approximately $99,616. Although this position had a floating profit of about $112,000 within 20 minutes after establishment, it soon turned into a floating loss, and the current paper loss has exceeded $1.34 million, with a liquidation price of $104,730.
In contrast, another whale trader nicknamed 'Insider Brother' by the market successfully locked in profits and exited by flexibly adjusting strategies, making over $2 million in profits after breaking even. The two trading styles are completely different, highlighting the importance of trading rhythm in high-volatility markets.
These massive positions not only brought short-term price disturbances but also left clear technical traces on the charts.
Trend momentum is weakening, and the rebound is still a repair.
I would like to analyze the key characteristics of current price behavior from three dimensions of the BTC/USDT daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts.
Daily observation:
The current price has rebounded to around $101,200, slightly closing as a bullish candle;
The previous round of decline started from the June 21 high of approximately $106,500, dropping to a low of $98,200;
The trading volume has not effectively increased, and the price is still operating below the main moving averages and previous highs;
The chart belongs to a weak repair structure after a decline and has not yet formed a trend reversal.
4-hour observation:
After a strong short-term drop, the price began to consolidate and slowly rebound;
The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, and the price is attempting to stand above the middle band but has not yet effectively broken through;
Overall, it is still in a 'decline → consolidation' structure and has not yet formed a reliable bottom.
1-hour observation:
The rebound that started from the June 23 low of $98,200 has currently risen to $101,200+;
MACD has produced a golden cross, and the histogram has turned positive consecutively and continues to expand;
However, as the price approaches the previous rebound high point, there are signs of weakening momentum;
If the subsequent MACD histogram begins to converge and the fast and slow lines approach, while the price fails to break through $102,000, caution is needed for a short-term pullback.
The current market is still in an adjustment phase, and although there is some improvement in short-term rebounds, momentum is insufficient, and sustainability is questionable. We need to be wary of the risk of a second bottom or false breakout; the 1-hour chart should focus on the synchronization of momentum and price to determine whether the rebound has a basis for continuation.
Indicator warning system: Building a risk perception framework.
To more systematically capture structural turning points and market risks, I am attempting to build a technical warning module using the AiCoin custom indicator function, hoping to help everyone establish a 'forward-looking judgment mechanism' for better subsequent decision-making!
Module 1: MACD Momentum Convergence Warning
Logical trigger conditions: MACD histogram contracts consecutively for ≥ 3 bars; the fast and slow lines are narrowing, with signs of a death cross or golden cross; while trading volume shows a significant increase.
This warning can serve as an early alert for weakening trends or reversals, suitable for adjusting holding pace or setting reduction reminders.
Module 2: Identifying False Breakouts in Bollinger Bands
Logical trigger conditions: The Bollinger Band width significantly narrows; the candlestick quickly retracts after breaking the upper/lower band; the RSI indicator does not make a new high or low.
The Bollinger Bands warning can be used to identify false breakout conditions, preventing blind chasing of prices or panic selling in the absence of confirmation signals, and is suitable for strategy reversal identification.
Summary
The current market structure is still in a weak rebound phase after a decline, and has not yet formed a trend reversal. For traders, judging the market's rhythm and risk signals is far more important than guessing price levels.
By constructing an indicator warning system, we can capture changes in structure and momentum before price fluctuations occur, thus making our strategy execution more forward-looking and confident.
"Not all fluctuations are worth chasing, but every change in momentum is worth observing."
