Bitcoin has rebounded nearly $4000 from oversold conditions, reaching a high of $102,613. Sweet Dream reminded this morning that today's market can engage in oversold rebound trading for mainstream coins, Sweet Dream is long on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. Sweet Dream has been bearish since June and has timely reminded about the oversold rebound market today, with a quite accurate grasp of the overall market direction recently.
BTC
Last night there was a small-level massive acceleration in the decline, continuing the oscillation downwards for two days, accompanied by small-level acceleration. It maintained an average drop of 5% during this wave of airstrikes. No market can withstand such bombardment. Ultimately, it stopped falling around 98k and rebounded strongly. Small-level signals show a stop in the decline again. However, at the large level, there is still no reversal to a bullish structure.
The W-bottom of Bitcoin is the best right-side structure! This pullback is still quite in line with expectations, as I said yesterday: "After breaking below $101,500, the big target is $98,000/93666, waiting for opportunities at the big target."
Bitcoin rebounded nearly $4000 intraday from the big target of $98,000. My maximum expectation for this rebound is $103,100 - the descending trend line, the former being the starting point. It would only show a subsequent pullback if it breaks below $101,500, so this can be used as one of the profit-taking points for long positions.
98000 is still valid; look for short-term longs here. The automatic rebound high point of the W-bottom is 99900, which may form a small support for the short term. Pay attention to whether there will be a rebound opportunity here in the evening.
There are a lot of support orders at $98,000 for Bitcoin that prevent you from getting in, but it still needs to be observed whether it will drop further, which depends on the news, something that cannot be predicted. The probability of a rate cut in July is very high, and once the rate cut happens, the market is likely to truly start. In the short term, the market may still be subject to manipulation by the main players causing oscillations to wash out contracts; it needs to be cleaned up before it can rise better.
ETH
The Ethereum bull-bear boundary of 2120 has not been broken, from which a rebound of up to $150 was initiated, and future purchases can still be made at this level. The maximum expectation for this rebound is to see 2380 first, where there is a support-resistance exchange point. Small target 2300.
Around 2300, this upward segment is a blank zone; breaking through here allows for entering long positions on the right side, looking at the starting drop point of 2380 and 2450 for gradual reduction. MACD is below the zero axis; long positions are counter-trend. Those trapped in the rebound regardless of spot or contracts must reduce their positions (if they don't want to be trapped in altcoins for a year).
Support at 2380/2445 for shorting, of which the latter can only be a short position. The bearish trend still has a high likelihood of continuing, mainly focusing on the situation around 2100. If it breaks below this level, it will likely retest 1900/1700.
Altcoin
Recently, the market in the crypto world really shows what "bottom fishing burial ground" means! Watching the price plummet and rushing in to pick up cheap, only to find that the "bottom" is a basement, beneath the basement is eighteen layers of hell, and below hell is an endless abyss! Don't believe it? Try it: buy one gets trapped, buy two gets double trapped, it's definitely, "bottom fishing is momentarily delightful, but being trapped is a burial ground."
Recently, many people are eyeing the altcoins that have dropped 40% and rushing in, only to find that they directly drop another 70%-90%. Selling feels painful, and those who haven't sold are holding onto them like hot potatoes, watching their accounts shrink every day and feeling anxious. Remember, only mainstream coins can barely discuss bottom fishing; most altcoins have no bottom at all. Their only endpoint is — zero! Don’t gamble your hard-earned money on an "impossible comeback"; that’s not bottom fishing, that’s sending yourself to the market!
Temporarily not trading these altcoins, focusing on trading Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, and XRP:
1. After a long period of decline, it is relatively easy to see "continuous bottom divergence," which will stimulate prices to rebound, accompanied by futures short covering behavior.
2. The distribution of chips indicates that the rebound of most tokens cannot be sustained, unlike the rebound from mid-April to early May (when there was a significant decline).
3. The increase list is concentrated on a few obscure tokens (cold tokens and new coins);
Based on the above characteristics: Altcoin's rebound (continuous bottom divergence) trading and short trading have shifted to being primarily intraday, with low cost-performance.
On-chain:
usudc: A target that combines conspiracy groups + narrative; I think this narrative can be a bit bigger. Several wallets with the same funds are trying to pump it, and there's no escape. The narrative has been alive for a month, showing resilience, and the narrative itself is good; stablecoin narratives will be a hot topic in web2 for a long time, so it’s worth a heavy investment.
UPTOP: Through the pre-sale of four_meme, it ignited market enthusiasm, achieving its goal and successfully drawing market attention; where are the opportunities for the second phase of UPTOP?
Everyone will weigh it up; after TGE, the first and second tier people will profit and dump, how big a hole can they create? Everyone will weigh it looking for a cost-performance position between 20m-60m to purchase, what position is that? It depends on the confidence points given by the project party's operations to the market!
This point depends on the project party's pattern, which is essentially the previous alpha+ contract; it's difficult for spot. If you don't consider spot and only think about alpha+ contracts, the alpha won't release much supply; the market value of the contracts cannot be too low but also not too high, blindly guessing a rough range of 30m cost-performance would be a bit, the most profitable opportunity is the market value after entering the contract, short + offloading, following the big players!
