Three Possible Downside Positions for This Year's Market Forecast
First Position: Continuation of the Current Macroeconomic Environment
High Interest Rates + Tariffs Driving Inflation
The US stock market and the crypto market will fluctuate and consolidate repeatedly from this summer to early autumn, but Bitcoin is likely to hold around $100K ±5%; major stock indices also tend to form wide fluctuations around the low points of the beginning of the year.
Second Position: Surge in Oil Prices, Tariff Spillover, Regional Conflict Escalation
Risk assets have an additional downside space of 20%–30%: BTC may break below $80K, first-tier altcoins may drop another 50%, and small-cap MEME/altcoins may drop another 70%.
The third position is more extreme, involving credit contraction combined with liquidity freeze, which is a tail risk; the probability is low but not absent.
Specifically, this could mean: war breaking out in the Middle East or Taiwan Strait, issues with major stablecoins, collapse of micro-strategy models, etc.
There is a chance of seeing $60K, and over 90% of small tokens could directly go to zero; this is already the worst-case scenario.
In fact, I personally believe that from now until Q4, the worst-case scenario is another wave of emotional selling, but this feels more like an extreme bottom-testing rather than a catastrophic disaster. The most important thing right now is to look for possible turning point signals.
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