$Circle(CRCL)$ 【Retail Investors Peak, Institutions Increase Puts: Circle Valuation Enters Scissors Gap Range】
Last Friday, Circle (CRCL) stock price soared to $248.88 during trading, with a market cap briefly surpassing $55.5 billion, approaching 70% of $Coinbase Global(COIN)$'s value. In the news, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which for the first time provides a federal regulatory pathway for stablecoins like USDC, combined with the recent announcement of being included in the S&P Global Broad Market Index, igniting short-term sentiment completely.
However, behind the heat, risks are accumulating. The current implied volatility of options has reached 180%, with a Put/Call open interest ratio of 2.37, indicating that institutions are significantly increasing their hedging efforts; retail investors are concentrating their bets on call options expiring this week at $270 and $300, creating a “lift + hedge” scissors gap. Meanwhile, Circle's core profit source remains the interest on USDC reserves, and if interest rate cuts are realized in the second half of the year, its profit model may face revaluation pressure.
Regulatory implementation is an accelerator, but changes in interest rate spreads and the transparency of financial reports will become the true test of valuation resilience.
Stay tuned for the latest updates on stablecoin regulation and market trends.
Not investment advice.
