$BTC On-chain Signal: Not Overheated Yet

On-chain sentiment and price cycles corroborate each other. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is currently around 2.2, below the typical 3.5 or higher seen during past bull markets (Source: Babypips). At the same time, UTXO age distribution shows that long-term holders still dominate, and short-term capital has yet to take control. These data suggest that the frenzy is not high, and retail enthusiasm may be delayed until the second half of 2025.

The supply contraction brought by halving and the continuously expanding institutional adoption remain long-term drivers. While there is much short-term noise, if the 'three increases and one consolidation' pattern continues, investors can focus on 2025, using indicators like MVRV and UTXO to observe market sentiment and flexibly adjust their positions.

From $105,000 to $200,000 seems distant, but it may only be one halving cycle away.