$BTC High Volatility Risk

BTC annualized volatility exceeds 50%, far higher than gold, and short-term prices are easily impacted by news (such as changes in regulatory policies).

Regulation and Macroeconomics

The U.S. Congress may strengthen regulation of the crypto market, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure.

If expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes rise, it may suppress valuations of risk assets.

Black Swan Events

Historical data shows that security vulnerabilities at exchanges (such as the 2022 FTX bankruptcy) or stablecoin collapses (such as the 2022 Terra crisis) could lead to BTC plummeting more than 30% in a single day.

Long-term Trends

Halving Cycle Effect: After the fourth BTC halving in 2024, a deflationary model may drive a long-term bull market, with institutions predicting it could exceed $150,000 in 2025.

Expansion of Application Scenarios: The development of Layer 2 technologies (such as Arbitrum) and the DeFi ecosystem may enhance the actual payment and store of value demand for BTC.

Short-term Strategy Suggestions

Buy on Dips: If it pulls back to around $97,500, consider accumulating in batches.

Risk Control: Set stop-loss levels (such as below $100,000) to avoid excessive leverage.