有益思

$BTC Key Points
Support Level: $100,000 - $101,000 (Multi-period EMA support)
Resistance Level: $104,000 - $105,000 (Previous high dense trading area)
Short-term Volatility Range: $102,200 - $104,500 (Intraday high-frequency fluctuations)
Technical Pattern
Daily Level: Still in an upward channel, but KDJ indicator shows a high-level death cross, RSI has fallen to 58, short-term may have a need for a pullback.
4-hour Level: EMA12 and EMA50 form a death cross pressure, MACD green bars are expanding, bearish momentum is dominant.

Policy Risk: Upgrades to the U.S. crypto regulatory framework or exchange compliance reviews may trigger selling pressure.
Technical Risk: If the 4-hour MACD underwater death cross expands the decline, it may trigger programmed stop-loss orders.
Data Warning: U.S. retail sales month-on-month data will be released on May 15, if the data is strong, it may suppress risk assets.

#美国加密立法 Bitcoin Reserve Legislation

Arizona: Passed a bill allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin (up to 10%) and accept it as a method of tax payment.
Texas: Plans to establish a $500 billion Bitcoin reserve, allowing local governments to invest and amending 12 related laws.
Alabama: Sets a $750 billion market cap threshold to secure Bitcoin, promoting integration of tax and pension systems.
Regulatory Innovation Experiment
Multiple states attract crypto businesses through sandbox mechanisms, such as Florida allowing state agencies to invest in Bitcoin, and Ohio allowing residents to donate cryptocurrency to reserve funds.

Market Opportunities

Accelerated Compliance: Exchanges like OKX and Binance are speeding up their presence in the U.S. market, emphasizing compliance as a priority.
Technological Innovation Incentives: Rules like the legalization of self-custody and issuance of on-chain securities may give rise to new forms of DeFi and CeFi integration.
Potential Risks

Price Volatility: Bitcoin's daily fluctuations exceeding 10% may exacerbate market speculation due to reserve legislation.
Regulatory Arbitrage: Differences in state legislation may lead to interstate regulatory conflicts, requiring federal coordination.

The current price of $BTC BTC is fluctuating in the range of $103,000-$104,000, with a daily high reaching $104,937 but failing to break through the key resistance level of $105,000. Although there has been a cumulative increase of over 10% since early May, the recent upward momentum has weakened, showing signs of high-level consolidation. The technical indicators show that the MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, the RSI has fallen from the overbought zone to 56, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices fluctuating around the middle band. Attention should be paid to the support level in the range of $101,000-$102,000.

Short-term driving factors

Policy: The easing of tariffs between China and the United States and the 'digital gold strategy' promoted by the Trump administration have boosted market confidence, but ETF funds have seen a net outflow for two consecutive days (over $90 million in a single day), indicating a willingness among institutions to take short-term profits.
On-chain data: The activity of whale addresses has decreased, with some funds being transferred to exchanges, and the net inflow to exchanges has risen to 2,000 BTC/day, which may intensify selling pressure.

Daily level: The price is still in a high-level consolidation structure, but the MACD death cross and the RSI decline indicate short-term correction pressure. If it breaks below $101,000, it may trigger further correction to $98,000.
Hourly level: Both the MACD and RSI show a need for overbought correction. If it breaks below the psychological level of $100,000, it may test the support range of $96,000-$98,000.
Potential breakout directions

Upside breakout: If it stabilizes above $105,000, it may open up upside space to $110,000.
Downside risk: If it breaks below $100,000, it is necessary to be alert to trend reversal signals, especially when combined with the weekly level divergence pattern.

The Dominance of Bitcoin Fluctuates at 99,513,638,311
In May 2025, after the price of Bitcoin broke through $100,000, its dominance plummeted from 65% to 63.89%, freeing up funds for altcoins. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC ratio rebounded, which is seen as an early indicator of the altcoin market. However, Bitcoin still holds an absolute dominance in the market (around 64%), and institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, resulting in limited liquidity for altcoins.

Altcoin Index Rebounds
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Quarterly Index jumped from 23 to 36 in just 4 days, breaking through the “Bitcoin Season” threshold and entering the neutral range. If this index continues to break through the 75th percentile (i.e., 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin), it will signify the official start of Altcoin Season.

Historical Cycle Reference

2017 and 2021: Altcoin seasons typically occur after Bitcoin peaks and corrects, such as the collective explosion of altcoins in March-April 2021.
2025 Special Circumstances: The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has extended its dominance cycle, with institutional funds leaning more towards “safe haven” attributes, suppressing the short-term performance of altcoins.

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Share a method that will never lose money when opening a contract.

The truth is often in the hands of a few people. Almost no one can do this method, and those who do it will hardly lose money.

First of all, there are three things you cannot do when opening a contract:
First, you cannot open a long position, second, you cannot open a short position, and third, you cannot open a long or short position at the same time.

The truth is simple. This is a joke, but you must also tell yourself that you should be cautious when opening a position and decisive when closing a position. Money is only money when it is in your hand. If you lose money, you will not keep losing money if you stop loss in time. So have you learned it?

The bull market is gone? The bear market is coming?

It has been almost two years since Ethereum reached its low point in June 2022. In terms of price, the bull market has been here for two years. As for whether the bull is tired or gone, I think it is just the halftime break of the bull market and it has not gone yet.

From the daily chart, Ethereum has formed a descending wedge. Generally speaking, the probability of a descending wedge breaking upward is still very high. The current price is in a chip area formed this year, and it is also in a position of stepping back on the rising trend line. At this position, I think it is possible to go long and take a breakthrough. The stop loss is placed at today's or yesterday's low point, and there should be a good increase. Similarly, this is the third test of the upper edge. If this still cannot break through, the low point of this wave will go down to around 2400.

Simple analysis, if the analysis is wrong, a random person will be rewarded with a huge amount of 1u. (The first 10u challenge has failed, and 10u has been charged again. Looking forward to it)

Can I use 10u to turn my position into 10000u in the currency circle?

I think the answer to this question is yes, it is definitely possible. How to do it? I think we need an effective trading method, focusing on accumulation in the early stage, seeking stability in the middle stage, and not playing around in the later stage. When I started with 10u, the funds were too little, so I could only eat small losses and slowly save the principal. When I saved up to 50u, I would be a little more relaxed when opening orders for 100u. At the beginning, you can be a little willful and open a larger position, half a position, so that you can also make a profit, and you won't lose too much. Slowly, as the principal increases, you need to control the position and the profit and loss ratio. In short, you should be calm and not be anxious, fantasizing about getting rich overnight and making a lot of profit in one order.

Then it is to open an order. You should pay attention to the entry point, exit point, and stop loss position every time you open an order. You must have enough reasons to open an order again. You may make money by rushing without thinking, but it is definitely impossible to make money by rushing without thinking. Sometimes when I open an order myself, I always enter the market in advance because I am afraid of missing it, but I get trapped eight times out of ten times I enter the market. There is really no shortage of opportunities to make money in the market, and you must be patient and wait (I say this to you, and also to myself, because it is really uncomfortable to lose money when you are trapped). Trading is very difficult to say, and it is also very simple to say, but the premise is that you can control yourself and achieve unity of knowledge and action.

I write about my trading experience every day, not to teach you how to trade, but to sound a warning to myself, hoping that I can do what I say. Because although I can write these, I have never done what I said, so I have been losing money. I hope I can change myself and enjoy the fun of trading one day.