This is just my personal opinion, not a recommendation to trade, nor does it provide investment advice.
At the beginning of this year, the market was in a frenzy, with everyone eager to try their hand, as if the next wave of altcoin bull market was just around the corner. Everyone was looking forward to the arrival of the 'altcoin season' and hoping to make a substantial profit. However, reality has ruthlessly slapped everyone in the face. Now, investors holding altcoins have suffered heavy losses, with complaints echoing everywhere, and there is a widespread loss of confidence, even leading some to doubt whether the altcoin season will ever come again.
But I firmly believe that the market will once again surprise us and give a loud slap in response to the current pessimistic sentiment.
In fact, upon careful consideration, trading cryptocurrencies does not require focusing on too many complex technical indicators. Many indicators seem professional but are often not precise. The simplest and most effective strategy is often to go against the tide—going against the public sentiment. Buy when it is quiet and neglected, and sell when the crowd is excited and lively; this is the true essence of 'buy low, sell high.'
As for whether the altcoin season will come again, the key issue is: can Bitcoin continue to rise? Because historically, every true altcoin season has been built on the foundation of a significant rise in Bitcoin. Without Bitcoin's strong performance, it is difficult to have a collective celebration among altcoins.
I still maintain a strong bullish attitude towards Bitcoin's future, for three reasons:
1. The market's resilience is strong: Currently, global geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and wars and uncertainties abound, yet Bitcoin's price remains robust and has not suffered significant blows, reflecting institutional funds' continued optimism about its long-term value.
2. Glimmers of policy and compliance: The possibility of more altcoin ETFs being approved is rapidly increasing, which not only provides a convenient channel for mainstream capital to enter but also lays a solid foundation for the future narrative of virtual currency development.
3. Improvement in macro liquidity expectations: As the U.S. economy slows down, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is gradually increasing, and rate cuts have always been a booster for risk assets. As long as liquidity floods again, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are likely to welcome a new round of rising cycle.
In summary, the altcoin season may well come again; it always arrives quietly when people have the least hope. The market will never reward those who go with the flow; it favors the few steadfast contrarians.
