U.S. government debt has reached a new historical high of $37 trillion. At the same time, one in four dollars from tax revenues now goes to servicing interest on this debt. This is not just a number—it is a troubling indicator that raises questions about the country's fiscal sustainability, the future of the dollar, and consequently, the prospects for alternative assets like bitcoin and stablecoins.
In conditions where even the Federal Reserve is starting to consider lowering rates, and inflation is slowing too slowly, markets are increasingly looking for alternatives beyond traditional instruments.
Why $37 trillion is critical
Interest payments are becoming the new expense item number 1.
By 2025, interest on the debt already exceeds $1.2 trillion.
This is more than U.S. spending on defense or healthcare.
The threat of a debt trap.
If the Fed keeps rates above 4%, debt servicing will continue to grow exponentially.
This will limit fiscal space for stimulus in a crisis.
The threat to the dollar as a global reserve currency.
The higher the budget deficit and the rate of debt growth, the greater the risk of losing trust in the dollar among foreign holders.
China and Japan are already reducing their share of dollar assets.
How markets are reacting
Bond yields remain high, especially on 10-year treasuries, reflecting investor concerns.
Gold remains at high levels, signaling a flight to safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin is stable and is once again being regarded as 'digital gold.'
Is capital outflow to cryptocurrencies possible?
BTC as protection against fiscal risk:
Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an asset not tied to U.S. debt and currency risks.
In an environment of distrust towards the dollar, investors are seeking limited emission assets.
Stablecoins and digital dollar:
Resilient stablecoins based on treasury securities (e.g., USDC, DAI backed by t-bills) remain attractive.
At the same time, a paradox arises: some investors are moving into stablecoins denominated in the same currency whose trust has been shaken.
Risks for the crypto market
If the U.S. debt crisis leads to a full-scale recession, risk assets—including crypto—may also be sold off.
However, in the medium term, crypto assets may benefit from fiscal distrust.
Summary
$37 trillion in debt and rising interest expenses undermine the long-term sustainability of the U.S. fiscal model.
Bitcoin and stablecoins are becoming increasingly relevant alternatives, especially in conditions of political and monetary uncertainty.
At the same time, short-term sell-offs are possible on all fronts in case of deteriorating macro data.
The crypto market is entering a phase where it will increasingly be assessed as a crisis asset rather than just a technological trend.
The increase in U.S. debt is not just macroeconomic statistics. It is a fundamental shift in the perception of the dollar's role and the fiscal reliability of the largest economy in the world. In this context, cryptocurrencies may transition from being speculative instruments to 'new safe-haven assets'—especially for younger generations of investors who have lost trust in traditional financial structures.
Watch the behavior of large BTC holders, how stablecoins behave during periods of macro stress, and do not overlook long-term signals. $37 trillion is not the limit, but it could become a turning point.
