Bitcoin's recent trend is like a race car suddenly hitting the brakes while going uphill - momentum is draining, key technical support has been breached, and market sentiment is dead quiet. Is it just a temporary halt? Or the first warning of a bull market? Let's analyze the key signals:
Support line broken, momentum declines.
Bitcoin has fallen below the critical technical support of the 50-day moving average. Although it remains above the EMA (exponential moving average), the rebound strength has clearly weakened. Technically, it increasingly resembles the early signs of a 'double top' structure, with uncertain short-term direction.
Spot trading is bleak, reaching a new low for the year.
Even with the turmoil in the Middle East, trading enthusiasm has not been awakened, with spot trading volume only around 4.6 billion USD, refreshing the lowest range this year - the market is truly 'eager but unable.'
The futures market is collectively de-leveraging.
The open interest in perpetual swaps has dropped to a 1-month low, and trading volumes are shrinking faster than anyone else can react. The funding rate has slid into negative territory, with bullish demand sluggish, indicating that the overall situation is gradually shifting towards a 'risk-averse mode.'
Volatility is exhausted, and there is no movement.
The implied volatility in the options market has also dropped to a yearly low, indicating that regardless of whether prices rise or fall, no one wants to place bets. The unclear direction and lack of momentum have caused options to almost become 'stagnant.'
Bearish sentiment is rising: options skew is shifting upward.
Although volatility is low, the options skew has significantly increased, with the 25d skew for 1-month and 3-month options both being positive - in other words, more and more people are starting to worry about a major drop and are buying put protection.
Whales are fleeing, and the data speaks the truth.
The number of large holders holding over 1,000 coins is decreasing, currently at the lowest level since early April. Smart money is walking away while selling, and corporate participation has not fully taken over, which is a potential amplifier of downside risk.
Macroeconomic pressure: double whammy of war + tariffs.
The tension between Israel and Iran persists, compounded by the expiration of the '90-day tariff buffer period,' putting pressure on global risk assets. The logic of Bitcoin as a 'safe-haven asset' is also being questioned in this wave.
