$BTC Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: The calm before the storm.
Bitcoin price holds above the 50-day EMA at $103,260; a decisive close below this level could trigger a sharp correction.
A potential US strike on Iran hangs over markets as Trump is set to decide within two weeks on America's role in the Israel-Iran conflict.
Despite risk aversion, corporate and institutional demand remained robust this week.
(BTC) price remains steady above a key support level, trading slightly above $106,000 at the time of writing on Friday. The uncertainty looms as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel show no sign yet of an exit strategy from either side. US President Donald Trump is expected to decide within two weeks on a potential role for the US in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite the cautious sentiment, corporate and institutional interest in BTC held firm so far this week.
How did Bitcoin react to the Iran-Israel war?
The ongoing war between Iran and Israel, which has been taking place since last week, continued to escalate with no sign yet of an exit strategy from either side. Bitcoin's price action remained broadly resilient at the start of the week on Monday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization held above its key psychological threshold of 100,000 despite the initial shock, compared to April last year, when BTC fell more than 8% amid similar Iran-Israel turmoil.
However, on Tuesday, BTC declined 2.10% as news emerged that President Trump had stated on social media that the US was aware of the location of the Iran’s leader but was choosing not to take any action, and then added, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” according to the Wall Street Journal.
Moreover, Israeli Channel 12 media outlet reportedly said on Tuesday that the US could join the war against Iran that same night.
BTC price consolidated over the next two days as the US didn't take any military action against Iran, hinting at some sign of relief for investors.
Later on Friday, Reuters reported that Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the US will get involved in the Israel-Iran war. As of now, the US possible strike on Iran remains calm, which pushes the BTC price slightly up, trading around $106,000 at the time of writing on Friday.
However, further escalation or US intervention could lead to a disruption in the cryptocurrency market, resulting in a sharp correction in the Bitcoin price.
Macroeconomic developments
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its interest rate unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% range at its June meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still sees around 50 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that ongoing policy uncertainty will keep the Fed in a rate-hold stance, and any rate cuts will be contingent on labor and inflation data. The markets remained neutral on this news, as an unchanged interest rate was highly expected.
On Thursday, US President Trump posted on his Truth Social account, “Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions!”
