#USNationalDebt Goldman Sachs says Trump’s spending plan won’t stop the national debt from hitting ‘unsustainable’ highs not seen since World War II

The U.S. will pay $1 trillion in interest on the $36 trillion national debt next year, more than it spends on Medicare and defense. If lawmakers wait too long to address deficits, Goldman economists warn, a historic austerity push could be needed to avert disaster.

President Donald Trump has claimed the GOP’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” will put the U.S. on a sustainable fiscal path. Economists at Goldman Sachs say it won’t prevent the nation’s debt from surpassing levels only seen during World War II.

The spending bill passed by House Republicans, combined with increased tariff revenue, will slightly lower the budget deficit when excluding interest payments, Goldman’s Manuel Abecasis, David Mericle, and Alec Phillips acknowledged in a note Tuesday. Coupled with rising borrowing costs, they said, the bill leaves the total deficit’s course essentially unchanged.

“But that path remains unsustainable: The primary deficit is much larger than usual in a strong economy, the debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching the post-[WWII] high, and much higher real interest rates have put the debt and interest expense as a share of GDP on much steeper trajectories than appeared likely last cycle,” the Goldman team wrote.