Weekend Market Brief Breakdown:
1: A Bitcoin price of 100,000 is the technical dividing line for bulls and bears, as well as a key position in the pattern, and serves as psychological support for retail investors. It is not so easy to break below, so no need for panic on long positions, and it's advisable to take profits on short positions as they approach.
2: U.S. Treasury bonds are nearing a potential explosion, and a sharp decline in U.S. stocks is something Trump is currently unwilling to see, while also needing to guard against Eastern powers taking action against Taiwan; therefore, regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, the U.S. government is currently more inclined toward promoting peace. The next black swan event from the U.S. is hard to see at the moment.
3: Although the Federal Reserve has clearly stated it will not cut interest rates this time, Powell's remarks lean toward a hawkish stance, but this does not change the expectation of two rate cuts this year. The market essentially does not hold out hope for rate cuts, but a full moon brings loss; the less hope there is, the bigger the rebound can be when a glimmer of hope appears. Even if there are no rate cuts in July or August, the market reaction will not be significantly different from this time. Conversely, if unexpected favorable news arises, it could lead to an explosive rebound.
In summary: The weekend strategy is likely to maintain slight fluctuations, with low participation from major players. Pay attention to the opening situation of U.S. stocks on Monday.
Key focus remains: 1005-1016 range; enter the range and go long without hesitation; the risk-reward ratio is reasonable for speculation.
If fluctuating upwards: take first profit at 1065, second profit at 1088!
If unable to break through the 1088-1105 range, go short instead!