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First, talk about the market
In the past few days, the situation in Israel has accelerated the decline. In fact, no one can predict these short-term ups and downs. What I can see clearly is that we are still in an upward trend, and it is enough to hold on and wait for a rise, without letting short-term fluctuations affect your operations. From the K-line trend, there is currently a possibility of ETH dropping about 15%, but it could also go straight up; the turning point is approaching. My strategy is to keep spot positions unchanged, and if it drops to around 2100, I will exchange some coins and leverage 2x.
Speaking of macro factors, the term 'stablecoin' has become very popular recently. Whether it's the passage of the American genius bill or the issuance of stablecoins in Hong Kong, both are long-term positives for the entire cryptocurrency market and will continue to bring liquidity to the market. The legalization of stablecoins directly benefits the majority of stablecoins, which will be issued on the Ethereum chain. The increase in on-chain transactions will increase demand for ETH, leading to higher prices, higher holdings, and higher staking needs. On the other hand, this also benefits the payment concept sector. In the future, people will not just buy coins when exchanging; more often, it will be about payments to meet needs. There is potential for early layout in the Ethereum extension sector and the payment sector.
The current crypto circle is truly boring and desolate.
The market lacks vitality, with pathetic trading volumes. Many altcoins seem to be suffering from 'cancer', continuously declining, and the once hopeful 'get-rich-quick dream' is now almost nowhere to be seen. We used to say that when Bitcoin reaches a certain height, funds will flow into altcoins, triggering a wave of 'altcoin season'. But the current market is completely off that script.
The current market seems stuck at a stagnant point, neither showing a strong rebound nor a clear low. Past experiences tell us that a drop of 70-80% in altcoins usually indicates a bottom, but this round is different. Many coins can drop another 90% after being halved, even approaching zero. Newly issued coins almost always start to decline as soon as they hit the exchanges, and no one dares to chase them; as for old coins, they simply can't rise, slowly being eliminated by the market like waiting for death as the market fluctuates.
The bull markets in altcoins during 2017 and 2021 made many people wealthy. However, this round may be the 'final liquidation' of those two prosperous times. Whether it's project teams, exchanges, or ordinary investors, everyone is being reshuffled. Now, stories of getting rich from altcoins are becoming increasingly rare, and instead, the pattern of 'issuing coins—listing on exchanges—dumping—running away' has become the norm. Many projects never intended to operate long-term; they just want to create some hype and then leave.
If you look at the ten newly launched altcoins now, nine have dropped below their issuance price, and the one that has risen is merely bait to 'harvest short positions', which does not leave any profits for ordinary people. This market has long since turned into a battleground, where retail investors and big players engage in a battle of wits. You want to make money from the big players, and they want to make money from you—but the reality is, most people end up being the 'chives', with a loss probability starting at 90%.
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