Bitcoin first made a misleading surge this afternoon, peaking near $106,524, then crashed directly in the middle of the night, dropping to a low of $102,354. This is just a typical 'pump and dump' as judged in Sponge's article yesterday (【Alarm Bells】The Doge is no longer pretending! Institutions are buying Bitcoin like crazy, but the price drops? The hidden hand exposed! Altcoins plummeted 80%, should retail investors short? Next week brings a key turning point!). The current triangle convergence is nearing its end, and Bitcoin will likely first clear the short positions in the $105,500–$107,000 range before quickly retracing. This afternoon, Sponge decisively laid out a short position at $105,800. The target looks down to $104,500, $103,500, and $102,500. Currently, fans following the strategy in the community have already gained nearly 3,000 points, with the highest return reaching 193%!
Recently, Sponge's strategies have been backed by visuals and truths. If you watched Sponge's official account or asked about daily opening strategies yesterday, you should have profited just like Sponge, with a clear winning rate. Now everyone is enjoying delicious food every day! Those who haven't benefited yet, Sponge will guide you on positioning; Sponge's recent directional judgments have not gone wrong.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $105,000, with highs continuously declining, and each time it tests the bearish OB (Order Block), it is pushed back, indicating that the upper pressure remains heavy. The market is in a downward oscillation pattern, and any rebound is a good shorting opportunity.
Short-term, focus on three rebound resistance levels —
The bearish OB on the M15 level is about $104,000
The bearish OB on the H1 level is about $105,500
The bearish OB on the H4 level is about $108,000
Due to lower liquidity over the weekend, prefer to short lightly after rejecting the M15 bearish OB near $104,000; the best short entry is at the H1 level bearish OB of $105,500.
Currently, for short positions, if you are leaning towards the medium to long term, it is recommended to set a stop loss at 109. The short-term stop loss is at 1066.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum has dropped to a key daily support level of $2,380, and it is expected to rebound and repair over the next couple of days. If market capital flows in strongly, the rebound could directly target $2,490–$2,500; if the capital is weak, holding $2,450 would be a victory. If you went long around $2,400, it would be wise to observe market sentiment first, and if there are any unusual movements, decisively take profits and exit, without holding out for the bigger picture.
Last night, ETH plummeted sharply, mainly due to a sudden drop in the spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta). An increase in open interest indicates that bulls are betting on a rebound — if successful, the market still has a chance to oscillate upwards within the range; if it fails, the next support will be around $2,200.
SOL
In early April this year, SOL dropped to around $95, forming an oversold pattern, then rebounded nearly 100%, entering a typical cyclical distribution phase — just like the last time. If you want to bet on a second support test, you might as well lightly position in the $110–$120 range; but once it breaks, you need to stop loss and retreat immediately. If it falls below $100, you might as well prepare for a vacation, completely short it, and go travel.
Altcoin
Yesterday, Sponge's small account gave a short signal at the end of the article — HYPE, with the short position making a huge profit of 217%. It was mentioned that there were two large buy orders below at 33.105 and 29.993, with the opportunity to go long likely near these levels, and fans who went long at 33 have started to profit.
The worst performer in this round is definitely those old altcoins in the CEX. If Bitcoin and altcoins were developing and starting businesses led by the village chief in the past few years, with everyone sharing the profits, it is now clear that the village chief has been promoted to the central government, with a bright political future, while the old villagers are left alone in the old world. Although it is very cruel, this is reality.
The cryptocurrency market has been the most suitable place for a turnaround and overtaking for the past decade, but that doesn't mean it will last forever. Just like in 2013, apart from Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple, all the projects ranked fourth to tenth have disappeared. These seven projects are PPC (Peercoin), NMC (Namecoin), FTC, NVC, XPM, MEC, QRK; most of you may not have even heard of them. This is due to the leap in times, and in another two years, 99% of the existing cryptocurrency projects may face the same fate, with no price and no one remembering them.
Therefore, in the cryptocurrency circle, we must continue to learn. After experiencing the eras of inscriptions, meme coins, and AI agents, the market rhythm has obviously accelerated, and many so-called 'leading projects' may not last even three months. We need to learn to exit decisively and concentrate resources on projects with 'eternal' value, bravely saying goodbye to those old coins at risk of elimination.
Sponge discovered several good short opportunities for altcoins this afternoon; interested fans can follow me.
Finally, a breaking news — Trump is criticizing Powell again, repeatedly emphasizing that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates quickly and reconsider whether Powell should be fired!
