Cryptocurrency Market Expectations Game: Signals of Breaking the 'Weak Reality' Under Favorable Narratives
The current market shows a strong divergence between macro favorable factors and weak performance: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, the conflict with Iran is nearing its end, and the tariff disputes are marginally easing, yet after Bitcoin's surge above 119,000, it continues to fluctuate, with the short positions now surpassing those of the long positions in terms of profitability.
From the breakdown of funding structure:
1. Expectation Overdraft: When breaking through 115,000, the spot ETF holdings only increased slightly by 0.3% (on-chain tracking), indicating that institutions are not chasing higher prices, exposing that 'good news has been priced in';
2. Pressure on Chips: A dense area of short selling pressure has formed in the range of 117,000 to 119,000, with active selling accounting for 58% in the last 24 hours;
3. Technical Warnings: 15-minute KDJ top divergence + MACD red bar shrinking, indicating that short-term momentum has entered a period of exhaustion.
