🌞Morning analysis of short-term market trends under geopolitical risk resonance!
Last night, BTC surged and then fell from 106,000 to 103,000 USD, with the core reasons being the breakdown of Iran nuclear negotiations and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine situation:
1. Sudden changes in the Middle East situation: The EU and Iran negotiations failed, Tehran clearly refused to abandon uranium enrichment, and coupled with Israel's continuous military pressure, the cycle of regional conflict has extended to over 2 weeks, causing repeated risk aversion in energy and financial markets;
2. Spillover of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Putin openly declared "the Sumy region is under control", and Russia warned the US not to intervene in the Iranian situation, with geopolitical risks spreading from regional to global.
Current market pricing logic has shifted from "risk assets rising collectively" to "geopolitical premium assessment". Although there may be a possibility of a short-term rebound from overselling, uncertainties such as the Trump administration's tariff disputes (with a landing window in the next 2 weeks) and potential Israeli "targeted elimination" actions have led to a decline in institutional risk appetite. Data shows that the Grayscale BTC trust premium rate has narrowed for 3 consecutive days to -4.7%, reflecting a cautious attitude among professional investors.
Operational advice: Follow the third rule of the "Combat Iron Rules" (light positions on key events), control short-term positions within 30%, and avoid leveraged speculation. Focus on the Fed's interest rate dot plot on June 28 and the Israeli action window on July 4, and wait for the risk premium to be fully released before re-establishing positions.
