High Expectations for Altcoin ETFs: Approval Probability Has Increased to 95%

Two leading market analysts estimate the likelihood of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for eight altcoin ETFs covering popular crypto assets like Litecoin, Solana, and XRP to be between 90% and 95%.

Analysts predicting that approvals could come between July and October 2025 are quite optimistic about altcoin ETFs despite the SEC's previous delays.

Altcoins on the Agenda and Potential ETFs

According to evaluations by James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, among the assets most likely to receive approval from the SEC are Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. Additionally, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche are also other candidates on the table.

Analysts also view a "basket ETF" application for altcoins positively, aside from these eight. However, some assets like SUI have a lower chance of approval — for example, the approval probability of SUI is estimated to be only 60%. Tron has been excluded from the evaluation.

Is the SEC Changing Its Approach?

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs was a turning point for the crypto market. This development led investors to now turn their eyes to altcoin ETFs. In the past, the SEC had a distant attitude towards altcoin ETF applications, especially under Gary Gensler's leadership. However, in the new era, it seems that applications are being responded to more quickly and directly.

Seyffart states that the first approvals could come as early as July but could also extend until October. In either case, decisions are expected to be made within 2025.

What Does the Community and Industry Think?

The community shares a similar view with analysts. For example, belief in the approval of the XRP ETF has risen to 98% this month despite the SEC's delaying attitude. Industry professionals also believe that altcoin ETFs are a matter of time.

Market Realities: The Dominance of Bitcoin ETFs May Continue

However, despite all these positive expectations, it should not be thought that altcoin ETFs will be effective immediately. As of June 2025, Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately 90% of the total ETF market. Therefore, even if altcoin ETFs are approved, their market shares may remain limited.

Conclusion: Excitement is High, But Realism Must be Maintained

While optimism about altcoin ETFs is strong, it is expected that the effects of approvals will emerge over time, and Bitcoin's market leadership will continue in the short term. Nevertheless, a softening of the SEC's stance in this area could open the door to a significant opportunity for the crypto world.


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