While premiums in the Bitcoin futures market have fallen to their lowest level in the last three months, institutional demand for spot ETFs continues strongly. This divergence reveals a notable differentiation in investor behavior.

Decline in the Derivatives Market: Cautious Waiting

The drop in premiums observed in Bitcoin futures contracts reflects the increasing cautious approach of investors. The two-month futures premium rate fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level in the last three months. This occurred despite BTC trading near the record level of $103,300.

Under normal circumstances, futures contracts trade 5% to 15% above spot prices. However, the current low premium indicates that uncertainty is being priced in the market and that investors are acting more cautiously. Especially after the rejection from the $110,000 level, this decline may largely stem from global economic uncertainties.

Increasing Downward Trend in the Options Market

The options market is also painting a similar cautious picture. The delta slope at 25% is currently at 5%, indicating that investors are seeking protection against the possibility of price declines. At the beginning of June, the delta slope fell to -5%, and bullish expectations emerged. Today, however, investors are increasing their hedge positions due to persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, and interest pressures.

Strong Institutional Demand in ETFs Continues

Despite the weak outlook in derivatives markets, institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains high. In the last 30 days, there was a total net inflow of $5.14 billion into Bitcoin spot ETFs traded in the US. This is an important indicator reflecting the confidence of long-term investors in Bitcoin.

Large institutional players like Strategy, Metaplanet, H100 Group, and The Blockchain Group continue to make BTC purchases without slowing down. This reveals a significant difference in risk perception between institutional investors and derivatives investors.

Macroeconomic Conditions Strengthen Cautious Stance

Global macroeconomic factors are among the main reasons causing investors to act cautiously in the derivatives market. While the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks in the US, maintains support levels; geopolitical tensions and recession concerns create uncertainty in the market.

Additionally, interest rates above 4.25% put pressure on risky assets. In this environment, derivatives investors are taking more defensive positions while institutional buyers continue to implement their long-term strategies.

As a result, there is a remarkable differentiation among different investor profiles in the Bitcoin market. The cautious stance in the derivatives market and strong entries into ETFs indicate that investment strategies respond differently to short-term risks. Careful monitoring of these complex dynamics can play an important role in investment decisions.

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