Institutional Impact in the Bitcoin Cycle: New Dynamics of Balanced Rise

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a more balanced and stable upward trend compared to previous cycles, thanks to the increasing participation of institutional investors. Strong demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to significant changes in market structure by outpacing supply.

On-chain analysis expert Rational Root and analyst Matt Crosby discussed Bitcoin's classic four-year cycles, the impact of ETFs, and companies' Bitcoin accumulation strategies. According to Root's assessments, there is still bullish potential in the market, and the peak phase of the cycle has not yet been reached.

"The Market is Far from Its Peak, the Upward Momentum Continues" – Rational Root

Rational Root states that the current price level of Bitcoin is still only 0.25 standard deviations above the "short-term cost base." Reminding that this difference reached up to 4 standard deviations in the previous cycle, he emphasizes that there is still distance to the peak:

"Currently, we are just 0.25 standard deviations above the short-term cost base; in the previous cycle, this ratio had increased fourfold."

According to Root, this cycle is progressing more regularly compared to previous upswings. The fundamental reason behind this is that institutional capital brings stability to the market.

ETF Demand Exceeds Supply: The Threshold of a New Era

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs not only reaches 3.5 times the daily supply but is also supported by companies increasing their Bitcoin reserves. This triggers a more prolonged upward trend in the market:

"Just the ETF demand alone is several times the daily production. Moreover, companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin."

However, despite this strong demand, investor psychology remains the most important factor determining the direction of cycles. Root notes that, as in every cycle, there are discussions in this cycle about "could it last longer?" but emphasizes that the fundamental structure has not changed:

"It is discussed in every cycle whether it will extend or shorten, but in the end, we follow the same patterns."

Cycle Predictions: Towards the Excitement Phase

Rational Root, which analyzes data like the Bitcoin Spiral model, says that the market is approaching the "excitement and enthusiasm" phase. This stage usually comes just before market peaks. However, increasing institutional participation brings the possibility of extending the cycle this time.

"The next 6 months will definitely not be boring."

Companies' Bitcoin Strategy: Is Accumulating with Debt Sustainable?

Root sees some companies accumulating Bitcoin through borrowing as a sustainable strategy. He states that unlike past examples that failed, current institutional players are based on more solid foundations:

"Accumulating Bitcoin using debt can be a good strategy when done right."

Price Expectations: Realistic Goals

Rational Root's price prediction suggests that Bitcoin could reach a level between $140,000 and $240,000 during the cycle. However, he does not find extreme predictions like "half a million dollars" realistic for this cycle:

"Targets like $500,000 in this cycle are not very likely."

Conclusion: The Same Cycle, New Players

While structural cycles are largely preserved in the Bitcoin market, ETFs and institutional demand are initiating a new phase. However, human psychology and investment behaviors continue to form the basis of these cycles. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important for investors to act considering both supply-demand balances and emotional market phases.

Matt Crosby issues this warning to investors at this point:

"Taking some profit in a period of excessive signals may not be a bad idea."


PLEASE READ CAREFULLY FOR A $10 GIFT FOR 170 PEOPLE.

Friends who have not yet activated the futures section will earn $10 when they activate the futures section by entering my referral code 88623008. The first 170 people will benefit from this reward.

I AM EXPLAINING IN DETAIL.

My brothers who register on Binance without a referral, please listen carefully;

You will earn 10 USDT when you do what I say in order.

Enter the Futures section from your application,

On the next screen, enter the REFERRAL CODE section and open your account by entering the code 88623008.

Brothers who want to earn a $10 reward by completing this process by April 10 can do so. After that, it will be sufficient to have a trading volume of $30 after activating your account. However, even if you do this process after April 10, your reward will not come. Therefore, I recommend you to handle it within 5 seconds.

THE SYSTEM WORKS ON A FIRST-COME, FIRST-SERVED BASIS. THEREFORE, DO NOT BE LATE TO GET YOUR GIFT. IT IS LIMITED TO 170 PEOPLE.

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY FOR A $3,300 GIFT.

Friends, as publishers, you know we are doing everything we can for you. We communicate the services and opportunities provided to us by our authorities to you. I have never held back my support for both the cryptocurrency market and you; on the contrary, I strive to provide more support.

Now I will explain how to claim your gift. First, those of you who have not opened a futures account need to activate this account with a short transaction. I will explain in detail and simply how to activate it.

So who can benefit?

Friends who have not yet activated the futures section can activate it by entering my referral code 88623008 when opening the FUTURES section. It is an easy process. I have shown where it is below.