After a period of consolidation, Bitcoin is once again attempting to break upwards. Earlier today, BTC briefly broke above $106,000, then slightly retreated, and as of the time of writing, it is priced at approximately $105,383, up 0.8% within 24 hours. Although the increase is not large, the market structure is undergoing some subtle changes.

On-chain data shows: the market has temporarily entered a 'balanced state'.

Darkfost, a researcher at the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, pointed out that the current Bitcoin market is in a state of 'lack of extreme emotions'. Data shows that the seven-day average realized profits are still below $1 billion, which means that the current market has not seen large-scale profit taking, nor is there obvious panic selling.

This profit level is similar to the situation during the market correction at the end of 2024 and is far below the high at the beginning of 2025. Therefore, there are no significant signals of large capital outflows within the market, which may support the current horizontal consolidation trend.

However, Darkfost also warned that new demand for Bitcoin is weakening. He analyzed the ratio of 'new supply / idle supply' and found that although long-term funds are still net buying, the buying power has clearly slowed down compared to the peak in May.

This means that while the market is gradually absorbing old selling pressure, it lacks the continuous relay from new buyers, making it difficult to rise quickly in the short term.

The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is becoming increasingly fierce, and the risk of 'squeezing' is brewing.

Another CryptoQuant analyst, BorisVest, pointed out through the analysis of order flow and position data on Binance that Bitcoin has been oscillating in the range of $100,000 to $110,000 for over a month.

Within this range, both bulls and bears are increasing their positions, and the competition for positions is becoming increasingly intense, showing a significant divergence in the current market regarding future direction.

It is particularly noteworthy that short positions are continuously rising. BorisVest pointed out that this situation means that a large number of investors are beginning to expect further corrections in Bitcoin, with targets possibly pointing below $100,000.

At the same time, he also emphasized another potential scenario: the dominance of bears increases the risk of being 'squeezed'. In this case, if the price suddenly breaks through key resistance, bears may be forced to cover, further pushing up prices.

Funding rate data also confirms this phenomenon. Currently, the cost of long and short positions is relatively balanced, with no extreme bias, indicating that the market is not showing a clear tendency towards a one-sided direction, but is more likely to trigger a point of sharp volatility.

The market is waiting for direction confirmation, and 'breakthrough' remains a key theme.

Overall, the current trend of Bitcoin reflects obvious 'accumulation characteristics':

  • On-chain data shows that holders have not significantly withdrawn from the market;

  • Although demand is weakening, the overall structure has not shifted to a bear market;

  • Technically, it is stuck in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the main force waiting for clear direction.

If BTC successfully breaks through $110,000, or re-tests and holds the $100,000 support, it will become a key watershed for the market to re-establish trends.

Before this, the market pattern of 'low volatility, high speculation' may continue to see intense battles between bulls and bears. For short-term traders, it becomes particularly important to set stop-loss and take-profit levels in advance and pay attention to position control.