🌕🔹According to (mansooralrhyb) and (Cointelegraph), Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a risk asset rather than a safe haven like gold, challenging its "digital gold" narrative. Analysts suggest that a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July could boost Bitcoin's prospects, although historical data suggests the third quarter typically delivers flat returns, with an average gain of just 1% from June to September. Despite an unspectacular week for Bitcoin, its trajectory could change if it aligns with global money supply trends. Jorin Timmer, global macro director at Fidelity, noted that gold prices could rally following an 8.5% year-over-year increase in global money supply, driven by geopolitical tensions. However, Bitcoin's volatility offers a contrasting outlook. Timmer highlighted that both gold and Bitcoin exhibit rising Sharpe ratios, indicating improved risk-adjusted returns. This metric suggests a potential price recovery, but Bitcoin's dual role as a store of value and a "Nasdaq proxy" undermines its stability.
🌕🔹 echoed this sentiment, noting that Bitcoin is trading more like a risk asset similar to U.S. stocks rather than a safe haven asset like gold in 2025. Similarly, Nick Rock, director of research at LVRG, noted that Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative is losing momentum, as traders focus on short-term volatility rather than viewing Bitcoin as a risk-adjusted asset. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2024 contributed to Bitcoin's struggles this week, reflecting its sensitivity to uncertain monetary policy and global conflicts. However, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated in an interview with CNBC that a price cut could occur as early as July, which could boost Bitcoin's prospects for a third-quarter recovery. However, historical seasonality suggests that any significant recovery may not occur until the fourth quarter. Timothy Peterson, a Bitcoin network economist, noted that Bitcoin's average return from June to September over the past decade was just 1% for the entire period.
🌕🔹On Friday, Bitcoin saw a significant correction after liquidity capture near the $106,000 level during the London trading session. Technical analysis indicates sustained bearish momentum across multiple timeframes, suggesting a strong likelihood of further liquidity capture targeting the $102,614 level in the coming days. If selling pressure increases, Bitcoin's price could decline towards the $100,000 threshold, in line with previous range lows and a key daily fair value gap. This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.🔥💯
