Bitcoin price and value have skyrocketed significantly during this cycle
Miners can't keep up with that momentum
Over the past year, Bitcoin [BTC] price performance on the chart has been remarkable, as the cryptocurrency has reached several new highs. The market has pushed its capitalization to a record high of $2.1 trillion, demonstrating the significant strength of the cryptocurrency market.
However, investors and other market players are struggling, with Bitcoin miners being the most obvious example.
The Correlation Between Bitcoin and Mining Companies' Capitalization Declines!
According to Alphractal, the link between Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining companies has decreased significantly. These developments often predict large volatility or a potential short-term trend reversal.
Source: Alphractal
Typically, as Bitcoin's price and market capitalization increase, the capitalization of mining companies like Marathon also moves up, reflecting their close correlation through market variables.
This is directly related to the miners' revenue based on BTC, large reserves, and the strong influence of the cryptocurrency market on their operations. Therefore, when Bitcoin increases in price, the stocks of mining companies usually increase as well, and vice versa.
Source: MacroTrends
However, this connection seems to be breaking down easily now. For example, since December 2024, MARA's market capitalization has dropped from $7 billion to $5 billion.
Similarly, Riot Platforms also saw a disconnect as their market cap dropped from $3.48 billion to $3.2 billion.
Source: MacroTrends
This divergence is also reflected in miners' BTC reserves, as in 2025, these numbers decrease from 1.81 million to 1.807 million.
This shows that miners have been selling some of their BTC, which is the main reason why the value of these reserves has decreased. As they reduce their holdings, the value of the company will decrease, despite the growth in Bitcoin price.
Source: CryptoQuant
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
When the price of Bitcoin and the price of miners' stocks diverge, the market is about to move quickly. This often signals a possible big move, or a sharp trend reversal.
Historically, this has been an indicator of wild swings, especially as miner behavior can foreshadow shifts in market sentiment or the overall health of liquidity.
During the COVID-19 pandemic crash, Bitcoin prices and miner values both plummeted simultaneously. Similarly, in 2022, after the FTX episode, these metrics also declined, signaling a regime change in the crypto market.
However, this is not necessarily a bullish or bearish signal, but rather a reflection of a change in market regulation. Miner stocks typically fall before Bitcoin, so if this decline continues, Bitcoin could also lose value.
Bitcoin may now be breaking away from this traditional relationship as it enters a strong rally, while the macro climate is not very favorable for the operations of cryptocurrency miners.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-mining-price-and-surge-variation/
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