Global Stock Market Overview Amid Middle East Tensions and Impact on Cryptocurrencies
Global stock indexes were under pressure today after a risky deal due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 index fell 0.22% to close at 5,967.84 points, while the Nasdaq Composite also lost 0.51% to end at 19,447.41 points.
Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained a slight increase, up 35.16 points, equivalent to 0.08%, to 42,206.82 points. The market still reacted strongly to the signal from the Federal Reserve (Fed) about the possibility of cutting interest rates next July, although this policy is still unknown.
The reluctance reflects investor sentiment as geopolitical tensions and other risk factors persist. President Trump’s stated stance on the diplomatic standoff with Iran continues to weigh on markets, leading to increased defensive flows.
Chairman Waller hints at July rate cut, Powell holds firm
Amid market volatility, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller signaled a possible rate cut in July. “We could do it as early as July,” he said, a move that helped boost markets in the early hours of the day.
Meanwhile, Chairman Powell took a more cautious stance, emphasizing that the Fed’s decisions will be based on economic data, especially the impact of Trump’s tariffs and trade wars. Markets reacted slightly to these comments, but analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of this cut.
Major investment firms shifted their focus to tensions in the Middle East on Friday afternoon, with stock markets showing signs of slowing as the U.S. administration weighs new war or sanctions.
“Investors are reluctant to take risks at the end of the week amid this uncertainty,” said senior investment strategist Sam Stovall. “Although we are only about 3% away from our 52-week high, the resistance is still psychological, like an old door that needs multiple attempts to open.”
Semiconductor stocks plunge as new policy increases risks
Technology stocks took a hit today after news that the U.S. may revoke special export licenses for some key chipmakers. Semiconductor stocks like Nvidia fell more than 1%, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell nearly 2%. The vanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) also fell nearly 1%, dragging the entire sector index down.
Analysts warn that the market’s next move depends on the health of the U.S. economy. “Only if the U.S. enters a recession will the market fall further,” said Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research. “There are no signs of a recession at the moment and we don’t expect that to happen in the second half of the year.”
On the other hand, signs of weakness in the real estate market, retail sales and import-export index are raising concerns about the possibility of a short-term economic recession. These factors also affect the direction of money flows into risky assets, such as cryptocurrencies.
Big Difference in Market Performance Between Crypto and Emerging Markets
In this context, the performance of the cryptocurrency market is particularly striking. Since 2009, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have consistently outperformed emerging markets. The S&P 500 has returned 562%, while the emerging market ETF ($EEM) has gained just 163% — or about 3.4 times as much.
More remarkably, the performance ratio between the US and emerging markets has fallen to a 55-year low, about one standard deviation below its fair value average. It was not even as low as it is now during the Dot-Com bubble of 2000.
This clearly reflects the clear differentiation in investment flows and the potential for cryptocurrencies to develop as a resilient asset class during periods of strong volatility in the global market.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/chung-khoan-us-giam-sau-loi-cat-lai/
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