🎯 Event Review
Recently, the market has experienced intense fluctuations, with ETH price undergoing rapid declines and brief rebounds in just a few minutes. Macroeconomic reports indicate a drop in the value of the US dollar, compounded by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, frequent reports about tensions between Iran and Israel, and uncertainties in policy signals, all of which have led to a sharp decline in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the timing of interest rate cuts convey expectations that future liquidity may be constrained, intensifying investors' risk-averse sentiment. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears over panic selling and short-term arbitrage has caused significant volatility in ETH prices in a short period.
⏰ Timeline
00:00 – The Fed report was released, showing a general decline in the value of the US dollar, creating an atmosphere of reduced liquidity and lower risk appetite across the market.
00:13 – A senior Israeli military official issued a message emphasizing the need to prepare for a prolonged conflict with Iran, significantly escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
00:16 – Policy news emerged, with Trump showing a slight softening on the Iran issue, but the uncertainty of such signals makes the market more fragile.
00:25 – Fed officials stated that current data does not warrant an urgent rate cut, exacerbating market concerns about future monetary policy and liquidity conditions.
00:30 – ETH experienced a rapid decline during trading, dropping from about $2490 to $2405, with a single-stage decline of 3.42%.
01:35 – ETH price continued to decline, falling from $2484 to $2364, with a cumulative decline of about 4.85%, and market volatility reached a peak.
01:55 – After a period of intense volatility, ETH rebounded, with the latest data reporting $2401.12, and both bulls and bears began to seek a new balance.
🔍 Reason Analysis
Escalation of Geopolitical Risks
The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the verbal frictions and military preparations between Iran and Israel, has made global investors wary of risk assets. As news emerged, many institutional investors also began adjusting their positions to avoid potential external shocks, posing significant selling pressure on crypto assets like ETH.Macroeconomic and Policy Expectations Uncertainty
Disagreements within the Fed regarding future policies and the recent signals of declining liquidity have caused investors to question the overall market risk exposure. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, economic data, and the timing of interest rate cuts has been continuously increasing market volatility, prompting a rush of short-term funds to exit.
📊 Technical Analysis
This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data, focusing on the ETH/USDT trading pair's trend:
Oversold Indicator: The RSI has fallen below 30, entering the oversold area, indicating that short-term buying may have repair opportunities.
Bollinger Bands Analysis: The price has broken through the lower Bollinger Band and is running along the lower band, indicating that the market is under strong selling pressure, and oversold conditions are evident.
Moving Average System: MA5, MA10, and MA20 all show a bearish arrangement, with all short- and medium-term moving averages positioned above the price, confirming a strong downward trend in the short term.
Volume Expansion: Trading volume surged by 576.04%, but accompanied by a price decline, indicating severe panic selling in the market. Additionally, in the last hour, the total network liquidation reached $30 million, with a net outflow of $30 million in major funds, showing that the selling pressure is very strong.
Candlestick Pattern: The continuous appearance of the Black Three Soldiers pattern and KDJ death cross further confirms the bearish short-term signal in the market.
🔮 Future Market Outlook
After a series of intense fluctuations, ETH price is currently in an adjustment phase, showing signs that both bulls and bears are re-engaging in a contest. From a technical perspective, the RSI is in the oversold region; however, the turning point has not yet become evident. Some institutions may take advantage of low levels to accumulate positions gradually, driving a short-term rebound. However, under the overall bearish arrangement and significant selling pressure, if it fails to effectively hold above key support levels (around $2360), it may continue to decline.
Future trends will still be influenced by the following factors:
Global Macroeconomic and Federal Reserve Policy Trends: If the Fed's future data comes in unexpected or additional liquidity interventions occur, market sentiment may quickly shift.
Further Evolution of Geopolitical Risks: If tensions in the Middle East remain high or new major conflicts arise, market panic sentiment will fuel risk aversion, which could weigh on ETH's future performance.
Technical Support and Rebound Signals: Oversold indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound, but overall fluctuations still seem unlikely to completely end, and investors need to closely monitor key moving averages and support levels.
In summary, after experiencing sudden significant fluctuations, the forces of bulls and bears have not yet fully confronted each other. In the short term, a period of consolidation is expected. Investors are advised to remain cautious and pay attention to changes in liquidity, trading volume, and the latest developments in relevant policies and geopolitical situations, flexibly adjusting positions to respond to future uncertainties.
