Yesterday, BTC maintained consolidation, continuing to recover, with the impact of geopolitical conflicts diminishing. The downward momentum on the 4-hour chart began to weaken, and divergences have been observed, but adjustments are still needed. Patience is required to wait for a breakout, with the daily chart still needing consolidation.
Waiting for the 4-hour level to break out, the weekly trend remains healthy. Pay more attention to fundamental information, with expectations for daily consolidation. On the macro scale, the weekly golden cross has formed, and a new round of market movement is likely to start. BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below the healthy range, while the daily level is returning to the healthy range. Daily expectations maintain consolidation, focusing on the stability of support levels, with support at 104000-104500 below and resistance at 105500-106000 above.
The second altcoin followed BTC's consolidation, needing adjustments at the 4-hour level, with downward momentum not being strong. It is expected to emerge in the next two days, and the daily chart remains healthy, maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Pay attention to the stability during the day, with support at 2450-24500 below and resistance at 2550-2600 above.
This round of the bull market was driven by institutional buying. Everyone had confidence, believing that once institutions bought enough, Bitcoin's price would rise high enough for funds to overflow into altcoins. However, no one expected that just before this critical point, the market's play changed. Funds that couldn't keep up with BTC shifted their focus to chasing stocks. Last night, Circle surged 34%, and Coin jumped 16%, leading to a bull market that originally belonged to altcoins spilling over into the stock market.
With various micro-strategies emerging like mushrooms after rain, the market's long-tail funds will soon be fixed, making the native altcoins in the crypto space increasingly unclear. Now, any promising altcoin is likely connecting with traditional market institutions. Projects that early on linked to crypto stocks profited, while those that were late could only sip the soup, and old coins that can't rise in the crypto market may eventually trend towards zero amidst macro fluctuations.
In summary, this round of altcoins is indeed difficult to play, lowering the expectations of most retail investors. Today, we will discuss two representative altcoins, SOL and ADA.
1. SOL on the four-hour chart:
1. The support level is relatively solid, with higher lows: The short-term support area has not been effectively broken, and the low points of the pullback are gradually rising, indicating that the bulls are dominant. During this pullback, the chart showed two consecutive 'bullish engulfing' candlestick patterns. This pattern repeated near key support levels (especially the second time, as indicated by the red circle), significantly strengthening the bullish signal, suggesting that the pullback trend is likely over.
2. Indicator breakout enhances momentum: The price has successfully climbed above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, further confirming a shift to bullish short-term momentum. Based on the above technical signals (effective support, confirmation of bullish patterns, indicator breakout), SOL has a short-term rebound opportunity on the four-hour level. The approach should still adhere to short-term strategies; the four-hour cycle fluctuates quickly, requiring clear target settings and taking profits promptly to prevent reversals leading to profit losses or being trapped. The core of short-term trading is to utilize funds effectively to achieve target levels or lock in profits when signals weaken without getting caught in larger trends.
2. ADA: In the first half of this year, Trump stated that ADA, SOL, and XRP should be included in the national strategic reserve and hinted that some institutions might be preparing to apply for an ADA spot ETF, causing high market attention. So, what is the truth behind this surge in enthusiasm? We might see some clues from the market movements.
Looking back at the week of November 4, 2024, ADA surged threefold in just one month, igniting market sentiment. Many people chose to chase the price after missing the initial rise, only to suffer losses on the candlestick of the week of November 25: the candlestick body became significantly smaller, and the trading volume drastically decreased, indicating a typical 'lack of momentum' signal.
In the following week, the market produced a long upper shadow bullish candlestick, indicating that funds began to exit significantly. Although there were three waves of rebounds stimulated by positive news later, it resembled the process of the main force 'pulling up while selling out'.
The first wave of rebound (early December) showed decent volume support.
In the second wave (week of December 30), trading volume began to shrink significantly, and it did not break through the previous highs, indicating a lack of upward momentum. If you hesitated to exit in the first wave, this is already a clear exit signal.
In the third wave (week of February 24, 2025), influenced by Trump’s comments on ADA, the market briefly warmed up. However, this seemingly strong bullish candlestick is actually a typical low-volume trap for the unwary, and those who truly understand the market can see it was the last wave of liquidation by the main force.
Many people relaxed their vigilance during this wave of 'emotional uplift' and instead increased their positions, ultimately getting stuck. Thus, what truly impacts the market is never the slogans and calls but rather the landing of funds and the realization of value. If there are really ETFs, policy support, and ecological breakthroughs in the future, then the next substantial market could emerge; otherwise, any rise generated by one or two tweets will ultimately be fleeting.
