Market restructuring and strategic opportunities under geopolitical shocks
Recent escalation of the Middle East situation has triggered severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market; Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000, Ethereum's daily decline exceeded 10%, and the total liquidation amount reached $1.16 billion. This round of sharp decline seems like a crisis but actually exposes deep structural changes in the market:
1. The bottom effect of institutional holdings
◦ Long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin surpass 70%; $3 billion in OTC buy orders form strong support at $106,000. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase holdings through spot ETFs, with Bitcoin ETF management size exceeding $250 billion, accounting for 18% of circulation.
◦ Ethereum staking rate rises to 27.64%; post-Pectra upgrade, staking queue processing efficiency improved 64 times, compressing institutional fund entry time from 69 days to 1.08 days, clearing obstacles for ETF approval.
2. Technical breakthroughs and ecological iterations
◦ Bitcoin Taproot upgrade (June 2025) activates smart contract functionality, driving a surge in NFT and DeFi activities under the Ordinals protocol, with on-chain transaction fee income increasing by 300% year-on-year.
◦ Ethereum Layer 2 solutions increase TPS to over 100,000, gas fees drop to around $0.01; Base chain USDC monthly active addresses grow 41% month-over-month, accelerating real economic scenario applications.
3. Paradigm shifts in regulatory policy
◦ The US (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act) includes 200,000 BTC in national reserves, freezing 6% of circulation; (Stablecoin Accountability Act) mandates 100% dollar reserves, pushing USDC market cap back to $62 billion.
◦ The Central Bank of Russia allows legal purchase of cryptocurrencies; China's e-CNY connects with cross-border payment interfaces in Central Asian countries, creating a demand for 'de-dollarization' asset allocation due to geopolitical games.
Logic for layout in three high-certainty sectors
1. Digital gold and institutional assets
◦ Bitcoin: Short-term focus on the support level of $106,000; breaking above $108,000 resistance will trigger a new wave of upward momentum. Bernstein predicts a target price of $200,000 by 2025, while Cathie Wood has given a long-term outlook of $1.5 million.
◦ Ethereum: The Pectra upgrade and ETF staking mechanism create a 'Davis Double-Whammy', short-term target of $3,000, and long-term staking yields combined with deflationary mechanisms could push market cap to nearly 40% of Bitcoin.
2. Technology-driven potential sectors
◦ AI + Blockchain: Projects like Fetch.ai (FET), Render (RNDR) combine AI computing power with decentralized networks; NVIDIA chip iterations and OpenAI's new model releases could ignite market movements.
◦ Real World Assets (RWA): Protocols like Ondo Finance (ONDO), Centrifuge (CFG) have tokenized US Treasury issuance of $500 billion, with an annual yield of 4.7%, 120bps higher than traditional channels.
3. Dark horse targets in structural markets
◦ Hyperliquid (HYPE): Decentralized derivatives protocol, up 110% in the last 30 days, technicals show a short-term target of $45, pullback to $35 could be an entry point.
◦ XRP: A leader in cross-border payments, fiercely contested support level at $2.27; if it breaks through the resistance level of $2.65, it will initiate a major upward wave.
Risk control and strategy execution
1. Position management rules
◦ Core Configuration (60%): Mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, etc., to diversify exchange rate and liquidity risks.
◦ Satellite Configuration (40%): Single asset positions ≤5%, focus on AI, RWA, and Layer 2 sectors, strictly enforce -15% stop-loss discipline.
2. Technical operation guidelines
◦ Bitcoin: $106,000 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; if it holds, increase position to 30%, target $112,000; if it fails, reduce to 10%, looking down at $103,000.
◦ Ethereum: Gradual accumulation at the support level of $2,640, additional purchases at $2,520, target $2,850, stop loss at $2,420.
3. Tracking institutional movements
◦ Monitor Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D): If it falls below 50%, it will confirm the start of altcoin season; can increase positions in Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and other ecosystem tokens.
◦ Focus on the Fed policy inflection point: If rate cuts begin in Q3, highly volatile altcoins (such as meme coins, DePIN projects) will see an explosive opportunity.
We will continue to provide on-chain data interpretation and compliance sector analysis; feel free to follow our account, and let's discuss your views on BTC/ETH recent trends or any specific sectors you'd like to understand, rationally exploring based on market logic.
