Bitcoin (BTC) volatility in the context of political and cryptocurrency markets
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight increase on Friday morning, after remaining calm throughout the week due to rising concerns over the conflict in the Middle East. At this point, the big question is: Is this a sign of intrinsic strength or merely a reflection of a weakness on the market's fault line?
On the 7-day timeframe, BTC remains in the green despite a decline of only 0.23% over the past 30 days. Analyses indicate that low volatility, narrow price action, coupled with a decrease in interest from retail investors, may suggest that whales are temporarily stabilizing the market to prepare for larger fluctuations.
Cash flow shift: Retail investors withdraw, whales invest
Santiment's data shows that the wallets of the elite and retail investors are trending in two opposite directions as Bitcoin fluctuates around the $104,000 to $105,000 range. Recently, the market recorded an additional 231 large wallets holding over 10 BTC, an increase of about 0.15% in the past few days.
Meanwhile, smaller wallets, holding from 0.001 to 10 BTC, have decreased by about 37,000 wallets in the past 10 days. Information from the data indicates that as large wallets accumulate more Bitcoin while retail investors lose confidence, this is often a positive sign for the recovery of the crypto market.
CryptoQuant reports that short-term holders currently own about 4.5 million BTC, down 0.8 million since the end of May. Although new buying demand has decreased, the market continues to witness a decline in new cash flow, as reflected by the demand momentum index dropping to –2 million BTC — the lowest level in history.
New cash flow is drying up in Bitcoin.
Short-term investors hold 4.5 million BTC, a decrease of 0.8 million since May 27.
Demand momentum has sharply decreased to –2 million BTC, the lowest level ever. pic.twitter.com/ollWBXHdll
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 20, 2025
Meanwhile, the demand for inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs remains positive but has slowed down. Despite the market recording 9 consecutive days of inflows, total capital has decreased by nearly 60% since April. Last week, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States raised $1.02 billion and $1.39 billion in the previous week.
Large transactions dominate Bitcoin activity
Glassnode data shows that although Bitcoin maintains a price above $100,000, something quite unusual is happening in the network's on-chain activity. In 2023 and 2024, daily transactions surged, peaking at 734,000 transactions per day, but since the beginning of 2025, this number has sharply declined, ranging from 320,000 to 500,000.
Non-transaction activities such as inscriptions, ordinals, and other blockchain data activities have sharply declined since January. These activities significantly contributed to last year's trading surge. Despite the decrease in transactions, the network still processes a massive value volume, averaging $7.5 billion per day, peaking at $16 billion in November last year.
The average transaction size is currently about $36,200, reflecting that whales are still actively using the network. On-chain data continues to show that transactions over $100,000 dominate, accounting for up to 89% of total volume, while this figure was only 66% at the end of 2022.
Bitcoin's price has reacted positively in the past 24 hours, rising above $106,000 from the $104,000 range. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at an average price of $106,029. The 24-hour trading volume is still down 18%, reaching $37.4 billion.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrency has slightly increased, reaching $3.29 trillion, while trading volume reached $86.5 billion. The fear and greed index remains neutral, while Bitcoin's dominance index reached 64.2%, reflecting BTC's economic dominance still holds strong in the global market.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-sap-can-tien-lon-ca-map-rut-lui/
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