The first phase of Aster is about to end, and TGE is expected to arrive soon, which is a project I am looking forward to!!

The following will be my personal analysis and does not constitute any investment advice!!

A brief discussion on the market cap analysis of AST and HYPE, and sharing my thoughts.

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Currently, the market share of AST is 16%, but from a data perspective, most of the trading volume is supported by BTC (if we can retain 8% after the activity ends, that would be good).

If HYPE reverses its operation to increase market share, it may very well return to over 90%. Based on a market cap of 38 billion HYPE:

AST valuation formula: AST market share / HYPE market share * HYPE FDV = AST FDV

Theoretically, it can reach a valuation of 4 billion.

The core still depends on two points:

1. The number of people willing to hold AST externally

2. The team's management of price expectation for the coin

Conservative estimate:

- Underestimated conditions, AST FDV is at least 2 billion

- Opening price expectation: 10 billion circulation corresponds to 0.2, 1 billion circulation corresponds to 2

- Ideally, it should stabilize above 0.4

Currently, the trading volume is being manipulated by teams using USDT, and how much they buy depends on:

1. The quota AST gives them

2. The team's positioning of the coin price

Note: The above is all personal understanding, and since I didn't receive the Hype airdrop, I hope AST can make it up for me!!!