Analyzing the bearish trend of Arbitrum (ARB) on the weekly chart
Arbitrum (ARB) has maintained a downtrend on the weekly chart since May 2024.
This bearish trend is also clearly reflected on the daily chart, and if the support level of $0.3 is broken, ARB could experience a deeper reset, pushing the price down to new lows.
During the strong surge in Q4 2024, ARB skyrocketed by 140% within a month as the rest of the cryptocurrency market grew simultaneously in November and December. However, this upward momentum has not been sufficient for this token to establish a sustainable bullish direction.
Source: ARB/USDT on TradingView
Building the long-term bearish market structure of ARB
Analyzing the weekly chart of ARB, TinTucBitcoin identifies that the market structure of Arbitrum has maintained a bearish pattern since March 2024. The planned partial unlock event over 3 years released approximately 92.63 million ARB, valued at about 27.6 million USD on June 16. Each unlock represents 0.93% of the total maximum supply, but does not alleviate the strong selling pressure in the market.
During this time, the lowest high of $1.19 in May has not been broken, and the price has established a new low in April. Thus, the market structure of ARB still exhibits bearish characteristics on the weekly chart, consistent with a trend that has lasted over a year.
Source: ARB/USDT on TradingView
Technical indicators show that the bearish trend is still present.
The RSI indicator is showing a clear downward momentum, indicating that the sellers are controlling the market. OBV has also recorded a new low compared to April, reflecting strong selling force. In this context, analysts are concerned that if ARB breaks below the Fibonacci support level of 78.6% at $0.298, the downward momentum could pull down to the next target level of $0.18, based on the Fibonacci extension model of 123.6%.
A decisive moment for the bulls of ARB?
Source: ARB/USDT on TradingView
Along with the comprehensive bearish picture on the weekly chart, the daily chart also shows that the bearish structure has been dominant in recent months. Over the past 8 days, ARB's price has decreased by up to 28%, even though Bitcoin has maintained a price above the psychological threshold of 100K USD.
The large selling volume is also reflected in OBV, which has recorded a new low, signaling increasing selling pressure. If ARB breaks the $0.298 level, the next downward pull towards the $0.18 area is a likely scenario, where support zones around $0.265 – $0.28 may become demand areas to absorb selling pressure.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/arbitrum-mat-40-phe-bo-giu-03/
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