Whales are cutting losses and leaving, panic among retail investors is spreading, PEPE is standing on the edge of a cliff, a single straw could crush this 'frog'!

News front: bearish news piles up, confidence collapses

  1. Whales are collectively fleeing: from June 18 to 20, two major whales continuously deposited a total of 1.2 trillion PEPE worth over $12 million into Binance, each transaction losing about $3.5 million, a liquidation-style sell-off releases a strong bearish signal.

  2. On-chain data deteriorating:

    • NVT ratio surged to 137, market value seriously deviates from actual on-chain activity, bubble risk intensifies;

    • MVRV Z-score dropped to -0.29, holders are generally at a loss, panic sentiment spreads;

    • Stock on exchanges increases, more tokens waiting to be sold, selling pressure continues to accumulate.

  3. Derivatives market turns around: Long contract liquidation volume surges, long-short ratio drops to 0.93, leveraged funds are fully bearish.

Technical front: breakdown imminent, rebound weak

  1. Key support is in jeopardy:

    • 0.00001014 USD is being repeatedly tested; if lost, it will trigger a 15% drop, targeting 0.0000088;

    • If panic intensifies, it may drop towards the annual low of 0.0000079.

  2. Indicators:

    • MACD underwater golden cross DIF: -0.000062, DEA: -0.0000624, green bars near disappearance, short-term bears dominate;

    • Bollinger Bands opening downwards, price closely adheres to the lower band, downward acceleration pattern is clear;

  3. The only hope: oversold rebound
    Random RSI enters the oversold zone; if it holds above 0.00001014 and breaks through 0.00001280 with volume, it may trigger a short-term rebound; otherwise, it remains a 'downward continuation.'

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