The price of Bitcoin has not been affected by interest rate cuts, but the dot plot shows that there will still be two rate cuts this year, with expected actions in the second half. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around 106,000, within the range of 102,000 to 110,000. I went long twice at 104,400 yesterday, successfully taking profit at 105,200.
BTC Analysis:
The Bitcoin triangle pattern has broken; resistance is at 105,800. If it cannot break through, watch the support at the lower red horizontal line. The wedge expansion pattern needs to pay attention to the bottom red trend line, but the validity of the triangle area is a prerequisite. The hourly chart shows a clear multiple bottom forming at 103,500; if it stabilizes here, a rebound can be expected.
The range of 100,900-101,500 is crucial; before falling below 101,500, it is not advisable to be overly bearish, and one could buy the dips here. If the price cannot stabilize above 106,100, it is hard to say if it will stop falling or strengthen; shorting here has a good risk-reward ratio. Recently, through arbitrage trading, relying on support and resistance to open positions, I have had a high win rate, leaving room for stop losses to avoid false breakouts, with a daily trade, it's like an 'ATM' in the crypto world.
Suggestion: Pay attention to support at 101,500 for long positions, and resistance at 106,100 for short positions. Strict stop losses, leave room to avoid false breakouts. Closely monitor the range of 100,900-101,500; be cautious about shorting if it breaks below.
Breaking news:
Is this going to be a total destruction? This could escalate, either forcing Israel to negotiate or truly going all out. These days should not be too calm. BTC and MD, will they continue to plummet?
ETH Analysis:
Ethereum is currently in a low-level narrow fluctuation, lacking a clear trend, repeatedly testing support near 2480. Both bulls and bears are compressing space, waiting for a one-sided volume breakout. The small-scale bullish and bearish probabilities are fifty-fifty; patience is needed for a clear direction.
2540 is the key strong/weak boundary line; below this level is weak, recovering could test 2610. The lower levels of 2445/2380 could try short-term long positions for a rebound.
Suggestion: Focus on the strong/weak level at 2540; it is weak below and looking for 2610 above. 2445/2380 could be a short long, with strict stop losses. Wait for a one-sided volume confirmation of the trend and be cautious when chasing positions.
Altcoin
BCH is preparing to break its previous high, going against the trend! If you’re on board, give a thumbs up. I recommended BCH at 455, which rose to 489.9, about to break 500. How BCH will perform later is uncertain, but if you hold a small position in spot, there could be decent returns in the future.
This month, I have already positioned multiple strong coins; DOGE 50x long position yielded 612% profit, PEPE 50x long position yielded 959%, SUI 75x long position yielded 214%, second round of PEPE 75x yielded 230%. All backed by evidence and not hindsight; these were calls before they happened, entering means profits.
Many new fans ask me why altcoins aren't rising. Answer: The market dynamics have changed in this bull market!
This bull market is driven by institutions. After Bitcoin's price rose to a high, funds should have overflowed to altcoins, but the market logic changed abruptly. Funds that can't catch up with Bitcoin turned to crypto stocks; Circle surged 34% last night, Coinbase up 16%, and the altcoin bull market is being diverted to the stock market. Copycat strategies have emerged, and long-tail funds are locked in; the outlook for altcoins in the crypto world is uncertain.
Quality altcoins are turning to traditional markets; early projects linked to cryptocurrencies and stocks were profitable, leaving little for latecomers. Old coins may drop to zero with macro fluctuations; the play of altcoins is difficult, possibly marking the liquidation of previous altcoin bull markets, as the crypto and stock markets move towards a new era of integration.
If altcoins can't rise, which altcoins are suitable for shorting?
Let’s discuss the logic of shorting:
1. The kind that has risen 5-10 times in the last two months.
2. Market cap is inflated, with pure air market caps exceeding several billion.
3. The main force shows signs of unloading, still at high levels.
4. Newly launched coins without applications, continuously declining.
On-chain
CAILA is favored by the Trump family project WIFL; $B surged from $0.0058 at launch on Alpha to $0.468, an increase of nearly 100 times. CAILA generously airdropped 600U to the top 1000 users by trading volume, with solid community operations, relying on $USD1 and the BSC chain; the unique narrative, along with the explosion of the $USD1 ecosystem, makes CAILA's potential promising.
Stablecoins are becoming a market hotspot, institutions compete to purchase Paxos' one-click issuance service. Retail investors should focus on on-chain infrastructure and RWA leaders, avoiding wild 'shitcoin' projects; regular armies might first eradicate such projects.
