#BTC Warning Signal: ETF has seen a net inflow for 10 consecutive days, yet Bitcoin is declining 📉

This has only happened once before - on May 20, 2024, when the ETF had a net inflow for 11 consecutive days totaling 2.4 billion, and Bitcoin started to decline from 71,400, entering a 5-month period of volatility.

So, is the curse reappearing? Is this round of market going to end? ❓❓❓

Let’s explore one possibility: the ETF inflow is to hedge against CME futures (false buying pressure).

First, the conclusion - it’s unlikely.

① The open interest and trading volume of CME futures remained stable around June 10, so there are no conditions for ETF hedging.

② The premium for Bitcoin CME futures has almost been erased (0.1%), which shows weak motivation.

By analyzing the BTC wallet balances on exchanges + the number of active BTC addresses, we can see:

In just the last 7 days, Coinbase + Binance have seen an outflow of 16,000 BTC, and the number of active addresses has dropped from a high of 1.1 million to a low of 700,000.

Conclusion:

① There is no doubt that in the recent BTC market, institutional companies are buying while individual investors are selling, leading to a liquidity bottleneck.

② Based on macro news and market data, there’s little cost-effectiveness in going long at this time; I have almost emptied all my positions, although I personally lean more towards bearish sentiment.