The situation in the Middle East is escalating, the Federal Reserve is holding steady, and Powell's speech has not triggered panic. Bitcoin continues to hold above the support level of 103,500, oscillating within a converging triangle. Yesterday, I suggested going long on Bitcoin near 103,300 and on Ethereum at 2472 and 2492 in my article (The Federal Reserve will 100% not cut interest rates! Bitcoin's pin? Is there a new round of major crashes in the crypto world?). If you didn't make any trades yesterday, you should give yourself a few slaps.
Bitcoin's key resistance level today is 105,500, but 106,100 is also an important resistance level. It is best to break through 106,100 for the market to strengthen. The hourly chart shows Bitcoin forming a W double bottom, and we continue to pay attention to the position at 103,500. If it breaks, we can pursue short positions. Currently, we have experienced 7 weeks of increases, and the adjustment time and amplitude are far from sufficient. Personally, I tend to expect further declines, with another surge at the end of the year.
Ethereum is currently at the bottom of the consolidation range, mainly focusing on low longs. It has been consolidating for 2 days within the range of 2555-2480 without confirming an upward breakout signal. Today's strategy remains consistent with yesterday's; long positions continue to be held. For shorting Ethereum, wait for a rebound in the 4-hour chart to the 30-moving average resistance at 2551, and enter shorts in batches at the pressure point of 2580. Go long only at support levels of 2587 and 2465, and do not trade in the middle range.
SOLSOL has retraced to the support range of 142-144 dollars, where long positions can be gradually established. There is a short-term rebound today. Earn some profit and leave; don't be too ambitious. All indicators have already broken down, so it is recommended to continue shorting if there is a rebound to around 151-153.
The macroeconomic pressure on altcoins, insufficient liquidity in summer, and market adjustments at the end of the quarter indicate that altcoin surges will occur after the August holidays when market participants return. The real major market trend will not appear until after September.
(1) The differentiation of altcoins will become increasingly obvious. In the future, capital will flow back into altcoins, but it will not be a comprehensive rise. Only tokens with clear use cases and practical applications can attract capital inflows, such as Syrup, Hype, and AAVE. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. Ethereum has regulatory clarity, an increase in DeFi usage, a deflationary token structure, and staking demand, creating a powerful positive cycle. Moreover, due to Ethereum's long-term underperformance, there are many potential buyers on the market's fringe. (2) Large-scale unlocking of altcoins.
The unlocking of altcoins will continue to put pressure on prices. If market liquidity is insufficient, the ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors will limit the upside potential. Therefore, I believe that tokens overvalued on CEX are not good investment choices, especially those in the Cosmos ecosystem, which face continuous selling pressure due to the validator reward structure.
(3) The meme coin craze has collapsed, and interest in meme coins is beginning to decline. The era of cute dog and cat coins as investment hotspots has ended. Only those meme coins with strong narratives and collective beliefs have real speculative value.
(4) The new narrative in crypto - AI x Crypto.
Fairly issued, continuing the narrative model of Keeta. The profit margins for meme coins are shrinking, and market attention will naturally shift to new narratives. AI, with its clear practical value, is well-suited to become the next hotspot. I am focused on researching and positioning in the AI x Crypto field. There is no need to rush to invest all at once, but if the market welcomes the next strong rally, I believe it will bring the greatest asymmetric opportunities. Altcoins may see significant trends after September, and quality altcoins will outperform the market. Look for projects that have real value and stories!
