Trump has the motivation to push for an agreement with Iran before the election to avoid rising oil prices, which would drive up inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions are escalating, and before the EU's tariff suspension period ends on July 9, the U.S. has only reached an agreement with 1 out of 195 potential trade partners.
Key dates include: July 14, when the EU may implement retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.; August 12, when the U.S.-China tariff suspension period ends; and August 31, when the exemption on tariffs for Chinese goods expires.
These events could trigger market volatility, but U.S.-China trade negotiations still hold the hope for a stable outcome.
The market is entering a seasonally low period, with BTC's short-term implied volatility dropping below 40%, and the premium on put options reflecting cautious market sentiment.
End-of-month options expiration, rebalancing capital flows, and systematic deleveraging dominate recent price movements.
