#美联储 Powell's inaction is the greatest action. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision has been finalized, maintaining the existing interest rate, which aligns with our expectations.

The Federal Reserve has been opposing the Trump administration to demonstrate its 'independence.' Trump criticized Powell as a 'fool.' The U.S. has collected $88 billion from tariffs without triggering inflation, yet the Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates. With rates not decreasing, the interest on U.S. debt remains high.

This time, the dot plot from the 19 Federal Reserve officials shows that 7 officials believe there will be no interest rate cut in 2025, 2 officials believe there will be one rate cut (25 basis points) in 2025, 8 officials believe there will be two rate cuts (25 basis points each) in 2025, and 2 officials believe there will be three rate cuts (75 basis points).

This time, the dot plot clearly leans toward two rate cuts this year, whereas only 12 of the 19 officials have voting rights. The 12 include 7 Federal Reserve officials + 1 permanent voting member from New York + 4 (11 regional rotating voting members).

In other words, only 12 individuals truly have the power to influence the final outcome, and they unanimously agree that only if inflation meets the expected 2% will they consider a rate cut. There will be opportunities for two rate cuts in the second half of this year, which is favorable for Bitcoin. However, the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, and this stance directly impacted Bitcoin's rapid decline in the early morning, albeit with limited effect. However, the technical support at 103000 held, and a rebound above 105000 occurred later in the night.

Powell's term ends in May 2026, and during this period, he does not want to be held accountable for Trump's reckless actions. His policy is to seek stability and victory. I have always emphasized that Powell is a conservative, while Trump is a radical reformer, with their policy implementations being completely out of sync.