萧弈杭

Ethereum has continued to weaken for several days, and today it has also reached a key support area. The level of 2450 has not been broken, maintaining the critical level of 2400. Holding around 2500, a rebound of 100-200 points can be expected, and reaching the 2600-2700 area is not excessive, right?

I still want to see a wave of rebound. Bitcoin entered long positions near 104600 during the day, and Ethereum at 2518. Now it is around 104200, with Ethereum near 2500 and below to add positions once again.

Ethereum's defense continues at 2450, with a rebound target for Ethereum looking above 2600, and Bitcoin's rebound target looking at the 106000-107000 area.

The market is like a dandelion, seemingly free to fluctuate, yet traders sometimes find themselves unable to act freely.

#美联储 Powell's inaction is the greatest action. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision has been finalized, maintaining the existing interest rate, which aligns with our expectations.

The Federal Reserve has been opposing the Trump administration to demonstrate its 'independence.' Trump criticized Powell as a 'fool.' The U.S. has collected $88 billion from tariffs without triggering inflation, yet the Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates. With rates not decreasing, the interest on U.S. debt remains high.

This time, the dot plot from the 19 Federal Reserve officials shows that 7 officials believe there will be no interest rate cut in 2025, 2 officials believe there will be one rate cut (25 basis points) in 2025, 8 officials believe there will be two rate cuts (25 basis points each) in 2025, and 2 officials believe there will be three rate cuts (75 basis points).

This time, the dot plot clearly leans toward two rate cuts this year, whereas only 12 of the 19 officials have voting rights. The 12 include 7 Federal Reserve officials + 1 permanent voting member from New York + 4 (11 regional rotating voting members).

In other words, only 12 individuals truly have the power to influence the final outcome, and they unanimously agree that only if inflation meets the expected 2% will they consider a rate cut. There will be opportunities for two rate cuts in the second half of this year, which is favorable for Bitcoin. However, the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, and this stance directly impacted Bitcoin's rapid decline in the early morning, albeit with limited effect. However, the technical support at 103000 held, and a rebound above 105000 occurred later in the night.

Powell's term ends in May 2026, and during this period, he does not want to be held accountable for Trump's reckless actions. His policy is to seek stability and victory. I have always emphasized that Powell is a conservative, while Trump is a radical reformer, with their policy implementations being completely out of sync.

Bitcoin 104600, Ethereum around 2518, let's try going long.

Set regular stop-loss and take-profit points! The strategy has been updated this morning, and since it couldn't drop further yesterday, let's watch for a rebound!

Bitcoin, today we should look for a rebound! Ethereum as well, it has repeatedly gone down but has not been able to break below 2450, rebounding multiple times below 2500. So today we should focus on the pullback and watch for a rebound!

I believe Bitcoin still needs to rebound and test the 106000-107000 area, and Ethereum will also go above 2600 again.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has passed. The situation in the Middle East is also tiring and needs some rest [sigh] or negotiation. ​​​

In this case, Bitcoin needs to look for a rebound today! Ethereum as well, has gone down multiple times but has not been able to break below 2450, rebounding several times below 2500.

The gold content is still on the rise! Although I said there was a Federal Reserve interest rate decision today, let's take it steady. I made a small trade, although it didn't directly multiply over 10 times like the previous two days, I still gained another 7000U. Now looking back at the short positions given yesterday in the 105200-105600 range, and the short positions in Ethereum at 2535-2545 are all top-tier. It reached that level once during the day and again at night!

Although the Bitcoin short positions at 105300-105500 and Ethereum short positions at 2535-2545 were closed early in the afternoon, they are still top recommendations, and there was no suggestion to chase long positions after the early morning dip and rebound.

Bitcoin, the short position around 105300-105500 this morning has been closed near 104900-104800 in the afternoon, and the short position for Ethereum has also been closed with a small profit today.

On Monday and Tuesday, there was a big victory with a 20 times return, but today I will take a more conservative approach because there are some important news data today, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech at 2 AM. Lao Xiao has always been reluctant to trade on data events, so I would rather wait patiently. If there are good suggestions by then, I will share them.

In the first two days of this week, Bitcoin had a long position on Monday and then a short position on Tuesday, flipping positions more than ten times like this.

On Monday, Bitcoin went long from around 105000 to 107000, then shorted from 108700 down to 103500.

Additionally, Ethereum went long from 2520 to 2600, then shorted again from 2644, increasing the position and rolling over the short to 2500.

Greatness needs no further words.

At 2 AM Beijing time on June 19, the Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision, with the performance on the Fed's dot plot becoming the focus of attention. The March dot plot indicated that there might be two rate cuts this year. If this interest rate decision shows only one cut, will the momentum driving Bitcoin's rise diminish?

Additionally, Powell has started being speculated on by the market since last night. In fact, all Federal Reserve officials are prohibited from expressing any attitudes or views related to interest rate policies 48 hours before the rate decision to avoid causing severe fluctuations in the financial market.

Rate cuts are the trend of the times; global central banks have entered a major cycle of rate cuts. Europe has initiated rate cuts ahead of schedule. Powell has been playing it cool, not cutting rates for the ideal inflation data, waiting for better inflation performance before initiating rate cuts.

In June, I believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates is low and will continue to maintain the current interest rates. The reason is that Powell has previously indicated he is not in a hurry to stimulate the economy through rate cuts but wants to consider cutting rates after trade conflicts have evolved. The rebound in inflation has always been a concern for Powell.

In the second half of the year, there will be at least one rate cut; thinking about rate hikes is out of the question as it is simply impossible. Raising rates during an economic downturn is akin to suicide. Lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy is the only way out. Two rate cuts could potentially lead to a larger upward surge in Bitcoin, with expectations temporarily affecting a drop in its price, but not impacting the long term.

Bitcoin short defense watershed 106500, rebound does not break continue to short high

Bitcoin has now dropped to around 103300, the evening target of the 103500-103000 area has been reached. Ethereum has also hit the target below 2480.

Yesterday morning, when Bitcoin rebounded to 108600-108700, I decisively called for a short position. This morning, I continued to provide suggestions and video explanations stating that this short could be held for the medium term. This morning, I also suggested adding to the short position at 107700. Yesterday, I continuously warned that once 105000 was broken, the target would be below 103500. The added short positions and short-term trades have been closed, leaving the medium-term short positions at a high level.

For Ethereum, the short was called at 2640-2650, with targets reached at 2540-2480.

Bitcoin 105000 has broken down, so continue to short the rebound at 104800-105000. The short position for the mid to long term at 108600-108700 is still held.

105000 can be considered a position for a top-bottom reversal, and now that it has broken down, short near 105000 on the rebound. With this daily trend, there is a high probability of falling to 102000-100000 within the next few days, or even lower. In terms of operations, continue to focus on shorting rebounds.

Meanwhile, after 12 consecutive bearish candles in 1 hour, be aware that there will be a small bullish rebound after an oversold condition. Now that we are close to the support near 104000, it is not advisable to chase shorts; wait for a rebound before entering!

Continue to recommend shorting at 104800-105000. If there is a rebound, I will assess the situation to add positions or make adjustments. Stop loss at 106200, target to reduce positions at 103500-102800, and hold if it breaks down to 101400-100000.

Today, in this 1-hour chart of Bitcoin, if someone took a long position hoping for a rebound, they wouldn't be able to exit; if all the high-position short orders were closed at 105000-105000, waiting for a rebound to enter wouldn't be given a chance either. They wouldn't dare to chase directly; only by patiently holding the short positions in the 108800-107600 area can they profit from this major pullback.

After continuously declining for over ten hours, if it fell from 108900 in the early morning, it only rebounded from the support at 106000 in the morning. It has been falling for nearly a whole day; how it went up yesterday is how it is coming down today, and it directly broke below yesterday's low support of 104900. Therefore, the next support is 104000. I think with this kind of decline today, the 4-hour chart will likely see an acceleration in the decline, and the daily line has a death cross pointing downwards and has already engulfed the gains of the previous two days. There is a very high probability that this daily line will gradually fall to 103000-101500 by early morning or tomorrow, tentatively setting the extreme limit in the 99600-97300 area. It hasn't gone below 100000 for a long time; let's see if the weekly chart can provide an opportunity to go down this week [food lover].

First, the Bitcoin short positions from last night and this morning achieved a short-term target of over 3000 points, with Ethereum gaining over 100 points. This is the conventional short-term target range set by Lao Xiao. It is time to reduce positions where necessary, securely close positions, and wait for the next opportunity. Those holding medium to long-term positions between 108600-108800 can still hold without making changes.

For short-term trading, pay attention to the support zone around 105200-104800. Of course, near this support level, I do not recommend directly chasing shorts. Additionally, be aware that after a continuous decline in the Asian and European sessions, there may be a rebound in the US session.

Ethereum's drop was a leading decline, so when Bitcoin drops again in the afternoon, Ethereum did not break the low point of the morning. I've also mentioned the support at 2520-2500. Once close to this level, it becomes a bit difficult for Ethereum to drop further. It is not advisable to short at any location blindly, but one can take short positions while also looking for some key support levels for short-term rebounds.

In summary, after yesterday's daily line rebound without a strong breakout, it has dropped down again today. The daily MACD death cross has failed to reverse upward, so the general direction is to focus on shorting during rebounds, with additional positions as a supplement.

Bitcoin broke 106,000, and the medium-term short position near 108,600-108,700 from last night can continue to be held. I won't say too much about the others; there's no need for more words. I also posted a message and a video in the morning, stating that if you want to reduce or close your short position for a short-term gain of 2,000-3,000, it's okay to hold the short position for the medium to long term at this level; otherwise, it will be hard to wait for such a good price above 108,000 for short positions again. The intraday rebound continues to be short.

Below, we pay attention to the support area of 105,000-104,800 from yesterday morning's pullback. If it strongly breaks down again, let's see if we can have a drop of more than 5,000 points today, directly plunging below 102,000.

Above, 106,500 has again become the key resistance for the rebound. Those without positions can continue to short based on the resistance below 106,500. Currently, the daily chart shows a death cross, and today’s 1-hour and 4-hour charts are steadily declining. So for those wanting to short tonight, there's no need to wait for a large rebound; you can directly continue to short around 106,000-106,400. Those with short positions wanting to add or have already reduced can also continue to short on the rebound.

Ethereum has made two trades from yesterday morning to today: a long position at 2,520 yesterday morning and a short position at 2,640-2,650 last night, both of which were very good. So for Ethereum, continue to short around 2,580-2,600 for the short term, with a stop loss at 2,630 and a target of 2,510-2,480.

Bitcoin broke 106,000 comfortably, and the medium-term short position around 108,600-108,700 from the early morning continues to be held. I won't say too much about the rest, no need for further words. I also posted in the morning saying that if you want to reduce or close positions in the short term of 2,000-3,000, it is possible to hold the short position at this level for the medium to long term, or it will be hard to wait for such a good price above 108,000 for short orders in the future. The intraday rebound continues to short.

Below, we pay attention to the support area of 105,000-104,800, which is the low point of yesterday morning's pullback. If it strongly breaks below, let's see if we can experience a drop of over 5,000 points today, directly piercing below 102,000.

Did I not mention that shorting Ethereum at 2640-2650 was reasonable? When it was around 2500, I told everyone not to chase short Ethereum; a rebound was coming. It wasn't until last night at 2640-2650 that I called for a short, and now it has dropped to 2542, giving us a profit of a hundred points.

As for Bitcoin, I was also bullish yesterday during the day, going long from 105000 to 107000. Not only did I turn bullish from 105000, but I had also turned bullish from the lowest point of 1028000 after closing my previous medium-term short at 110200 days ago; this is known to everyone. Over the weekend, the short positions taken near 106000 were also short-term, and I exited all those around the 104400-105000 area, providing timely reminders. The only slight misjudgment was the early short from 107100-107700 last night, which resulted in a small loss, but I called everyone to re-enter short around 108600-108800. Comfortable.

The Bitcoin market is almost the same as last Monday's trend. I went long at 105000 yesterday morning and kept reminding not to go short. After taking profit on the long position above 107100, I only shorted once in the 107100-107700 range, and that position was stopped out.

Current price 108600-108700, re-entering short.