The Israel-Iran conflict has recently become a focus of market attention and is also a major off-market factor for volatility in the cryptocurrency market, yet it has not had a significant impact on U.S. stocks. This point can confirm that Bitcoin has never functioned as a safe-haven asset under irresistible external factors.

The Israel-Iran conflict has not caused much impact on the market mainly because the friction has been ongoing for more than two years, leading investors to experience visual and perceptual fatigue regarding it (including the Russia-Ukraine conflict). A conventional war does not create significant negative sentiment; only by introducing new twists could greater volatility occur. For example, if Iran had secretly developed a nuclear warhead earlier, it could have created a nuclear deterrent. However, whether it actually possesses such a weapon and whether it would use it against Israel with a miniature nuclear warhead presents significant variables (the likelihood of this is very low). Meanwhile, whether the U.S. will deploy troops to the Middle East is another key point of focus moving forward. U.S. military involvement may not necessarily escalate the conflict; it could potentially end the Israel-Iran conflict prematurely, which could lead to a 'first suppression then rise' effect in the market. Bears may exploit the question of U.S. troop deployment for their advantage. Trump, being a businessman, is aware that military engagements are costly, and he is unlikely to make such a decision lightly; he will wait until the timing is right to ensure benefits before proceeding.

Every year from June to August tends to be a period of volatility with increasing uncertainties, necessitating a conservative approach for bulls. In the short term, if new highs are not reached, a strategy of quickly entering and exiting on dips may be more appropriate.