Bitcoin has once again 'fallen into silence.' Last night, the market closely monitored the Israel-Iran situation, anticipating a dramatic move from Iran, but ultimately only a few hypersonic missiles hit several vacant targets, making a lot of noise but little impact. Bitcoin briefly dropped to the $100,000 mark, causing panic selling among some investors; however, upon checking this morning, BTC remained solidly above $105,000, with a rapid rebound that was astonishing, further validating its strong support position.
This seemingly 'fake confrontation' reveals numerous possibilities for future developments. The temporary closure of the U.S. consulate in Israel for three days undoubtedly adds a layer of uncertainty to the situation. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Israel-Iran conflict has been brewing for over 40 years, and this long-anticipated war is likely to escalate to a full-blown conflict in the near future.
Analysis of Five Possibilities in the Israel-Iran Conflict:
1. Precision Strikes to Maintain Face
Iran adopts a 'symbolic retaliation' model to avoid the risks of full-scale war while showcasing a 'tough stance' domestically. This accurately reflects the current situation, as actions have been taken without provoking genuine anger from the U.S. and Israel.
2. Marginalization of Local Conflicts
In the coming weeks, Iran may engage in 'proxy wars' along the Israeli border by supporting Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, creating continuous disruptions rather than direct confrontations.
3. Full Involvement of Hezbollah
If Israel continues to expand military operations, Hezbollah in Lebanon may fully engage in the war. Although its 150,000 rockets may not be capable of precise strikes, a saturation attack could put Israel in a passive situation where the 'Iron Dome' cannot cope.
4. U.S. Direct Military Involvement
If Iran expands its attack targets to U.S. military bases or tanker shipping routes, the U.S. may have to intervene. Once U.S. forces take action, the situation in the Middle East will spiral out of control, and global markets will experience severe turbulence.
From Bitcoin's 'fall without breaking,' we can see that the market is still observing the potential outbreak of war; while emotions are tense, there is no panic or loss of control. The current situation remains in a phase of gamesmanship and testing, but the intensity of the conflict is escalating, and the real storm may still be brewing.
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