#美联储FOMC会议

Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting, although there is no interest rate cut, is just as important as any meeting that does involve a rate cut. Chairman Powell's speech will reveal the path for rate cuts in the second half of the year, accompanied by a key dot plot, and the voting members will clarify the expectations for rate cuts in 2025.

There are three major highlights of the meeting:

Highlight One: Risk of Dot Plot Adjustment

The March dot plot has already revised the expectation for rate cuts in 2025 from three to two, mainly due to the rebound in U.S. inflation and the trend of rising tariffs. There are concerns in the market that the voting members may further adjust this to one rate cut. If two out of the nine voting members raise their expectations, this adjustment may become a reality and could have a significant impact on the market, making the probability non-negligible.

Highlight Two: Minor Adjustments to Economic Forecasts

The Federal Reserve may lower the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4%, but raise it for 2026 to 1.8%, due to the implementation of tax cuts and other stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which are favorable for the economy next year. This is also a key factor for a potential reversal in U.S. stocks in the second half of the year.

On the inflation front, the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested in the first half of the year, with inflation consistently below expectations for three months. However, inflation expectations may be raised in the second half of the year, with inflation at the end of 2025 potentially rising from 2.9% to 3.1%, and the first rate cut may be delayed until September.

Highlight Three: Tone of Powell's Speech

Whether Powell directly provides guidance on the timing of rate cuts is crucial. If clear guidance is given, the market can trade in anticipation of rate cuts in advance.

Hawkish possibility: Powell may state that economic uncertainty is high, inflation still has rebound risks, and that decisions on rate cuts will wait for clearer tariff data, adopting a 'wait-and-see' attitude.

Dovish possibility: If Powell expresses confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target or worries about the risks of a cooling labor market, this would be a dovish signal. Yesterday, Nick from the 'Federal Reserve Communications' revealed that economic data supported a rate cut this week, but tariff factors may cause the Federal Reserve to remain on hold. This statement opens up imaginative space for dovish expectations.