# #美联储FOMC会议 The June FOMC meeting has just concluded, and an extremely detailed set of minutes and Powell's remarks have conveyed critically important information to the market — rate cuts? Don't rush; inflation? It may come back; the market? Risks have suddenly intensified.
I spent the entire night reading the complete minutes of the meeting and the press conference. Below are the eight core points I distilled along with my personal judgments. After reading, you will be able to more clearly judge the future trends of interest rates and asset prices.
Interest rates remain unchanged, but there is serious divergence in future paths.
Although the federal funds rate remains at 5.25%-5.50%, the dot plot shows that committee members are seriously divided on the rate path for 2025. Some members expect three rate cuts next year, while others advocate for maintaining the current stance.
My opinion: This reveals an important signal — the Federal Reserve is not optimistic about the economic outlook internally, but does not dare to take risks. The market must not misinterpret this as 'immediate rate cuts'.
Powell sent a strong signal: policy adjustments will be more forward-looking and non-mechanical.
'We are not mechanical responders to data, but we take action based on predictions.' — This is Powell's original statement at the press conference.
My judgment: This sentence is very important! It indicates that policies may start to loosen before inflation has significantly declined, but it may also raise rates ahead of data reaching alarming levels.
Inflation is back in focus: inflation will rise again in the coming months.
This meeting clearly pointed out that a new round of tariffs will significantly push inflation up in the summer, specifically naming the upward price trends of computers, audiovisual equipment, and some durable goods.
My reminder: If you are still expecting a rapid decline in CPI, please wake up. This wave of 'second inflation shock' has just begun!
The labor market is not as bad as you think, but it is not strong enough to support significant rate hikes.
Although the unemployment rate is written as 4.2% in the original text, it is actually 4.0%, still within a low range. But importantly, **'Wage growth is healthy, but the pace is slowing'** hides key information.
My view: The labor market has entered a stage of 'stability but marginal weakness', which means inflationary stickiness still exists, but it is not a reason for rate hikes; rather, it is an excuse to maintain the status quo.
AI has been officially written into the long-term agenda!
Powell rarely mentioned the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on the job market but emphasized that 'we are still in the observation period'.
Interpretation: Don't underestimate this paragraph! AI will become one of the core variables in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the next 2-3 years. It is not just an efficiency issue, but a structural employment transition issue.
Consumer and business confidence are declining, and there are risks to economic growth prospects.
Although the official stance remains that 'the US economy is performing robustly', the meeting minutes repeatedly mention issues such as trade uncertainty and imbalances in fiscal spending distribution.
My tip: The current strong growth is more of a 'lagging consumption support' rather than a recovery of fundamental economic momentum. Once credit expansion is restricted, a decline could happen very quickly.
It is now an observation period, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to act.
The current policy is defined as 'tight and effective'. It will maintain a 'wait-and-see' strategy until there are more pronounced changes in inflation or employment data.
But please note: Powell has already stated that summer will be a key window for judging policy direction. If inflation exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may reverse market expectations and take a rate hike deterrent.
The greatest uncertainty remains: politics, fiscal policy, and inflation expectations.
Concerns about uncertainty regarding fiscal and trade policies were mentioned more than once during the meeting. In particular, whether the tariff transmission path ultimately affects consumers and whether it triggers uncontrollable inflation expectations.
Personal view: The real risk comes from the 'inflation psychology' restarting. Once the market begins to 'expect price increases', the policy will be passively chasing, and asset valuations will face reevaluation.
Summary: The current strategy is not to wait for rate cuts, but to be wary of the worst combination of 'inflation rebound + policy inaction'.
Stop just looking at the dot plot and waiting for the interest rate table; behind this game is the repricing of global funds. This time, the message from the Federal Reserve is very clear: first look at inflation, do not rush to cut rates, but do not rule out a reversal at any time.
If you are an investor, especially involved in US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, bonds, and other assets, this meeting's content must be read three times!
I have organized a complete comparison table of the FOMC meeting minutes + a list of key data that may trigger Federal Reserve actions in the next three months.
This is not an ordinary meeting; it is the eve of a policy turning point. If you understand it, you will be ahead of 95% of the market!
