Will Bitcoin surge to $110,000 or drop back to $100,000? It all depends on how the Federal Reserve 'paints' it!

Can Bitcoin still rise? Will it break through $110,000, or will it drop back to $100,000? This week, the key point is a chart from the Federal Reserve—the dot plot.

Don't be frightened by this term; it is actually a 'grading sheet' of each Federal Reserve official's expectations for future interest rates. It reveals: Will there be a rate cut soon? By how much? How long will the cuts last? And this is precisely what the market is most concerned about.

Although the market generally expects no interest rate hike this week (staying at 4.25%-4.50%), the real focus is what Powell will say at the press conference and what kind of 'future curve' the dot plot will depict.

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating at a high level, with bears rushing in, while big players are quietly buying. The ETF fund flow is poor, and the financing rate is still negative, indicating that market sentiment is cautious and even a bit pessimistic. But—if Powell hints at future rate cuts, it could ignite the market completely!

Possible trends?

If the tone is 'dovish' (hinting at rate cuts)—Bitcoin may surge above $112,000 in one go.

If the tone is 'hawkish' (maintaining high rates)—it may drop back to around $100,000.

As an additional note: the current expectation for rate cuts in 2025 has already dropped from 100 basis points to 50 basis points. If the international situation continues to be tense, it could even drop further to 25 basis points. This means—the market is becoming increasingly uncertain about the prospect of rate cuts.

However, from a long-term perspective, high interest rates and significant debt pressure, along with tightening U.S. finances, may actually drive hard assets like Bitcoin to become hedging tools, just like people used to buy gold in the past. So, the logic for a long-term bullish outlook is still intact.

There is also technical support: Some analyses indicate that if Bitcoin continues to follow the 'third-year surge model' from previous cycles, it could rise by 120% by 2025, and this bull market is far from over.

Conclusion guidance

In the next few trading days, the market may experience significant volatility; stay calm, as opportunities are hidden within the fluctuations!

Follow me to help you understand the market signals behind the data; missing the news is not as good as seizing the opportunity!