At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve threw out the 'standard answer'.

As expected, the Federal Reserve remained inactive for the fourth consecutive time, with interest rates still stuck in the 4.25%-4.5% range. But there are hidden knives in the dot plot—7 out of 19 officials directly opposed rate cuts, and only 8 supported two cuts, which is one vote less than in March; the rest either want one cut or to do nothing.

They say 'two rate cuts this year', but their actions tell a different story; these savvy people have already started to line up.


Inflation at 3% is a foregone conclusion; the Federal Reserve is playing 'The Wolf is Coming'.

The latest economic forecast lays it bare: 2025 inflation expectations soar from 2.7% to 3%, GDP growth rate cut from 1.7% to 1.4%, and unemployment rate jumps to 4.5%. What does this data mean? The coffin lid of stagflation is about to burst.

Powell says 'wait for the data', but in reality, he's secretly raising the weight of tariff impacts, clearly shifting blame to Trump— the transmission effect of tariffs pushing up prices will not fully explode for at least another 3 months.

Now the Federal Reserve only has the 'dragging strategy' left. Rate cuts? First, ask inflation if it agrees.


Trump is getting agitated and ranting; rate cuts have become a political game.

In an election year filled with gunpowder, Trump directly scolds Powell as a 'fool', demanding an immediate rate cut of 100 basis points.

But this time, the Federal Reserve is tough, cutting the 2026 rate cut expectation from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.

This move is equivalent to telling the White House: 'You raise tariffs, I take the blame? No way!' Now both sides have torn their faces, and the clash of policy independence and political pressure will only cause market volatility to soar.


Crypto script: pull up the market before rate cuts; once the shoe drops, the harvest begins.

Historical experience shows that the market always goes against consensus. When the May CPI data just came out, the whole network shouted 'rate cuts come early', yet BTC surged to 72,000 and then fell back to 65,000; how many were liquidated before dawn? This time, the Federal Reserve is playing a psychological game, leaving a thought of 'two rate cuts' in the dot plot, but internally they are already divided. Smart money has long started to position itself.


Expectations for rate cut speculation period (now - September): The main players must pull up the market to create FOMO sentiment, especially ETH and SOL backed by AI and Layer 2 narratives, likely to follow an independent trend.


The real rate cut landing (possibly in September): all good news turns into bad news, combined with institutional long and short killings, with an expected spike of over 20%.


Black Swan variable: Escalation of Middle East conflict raises oil prices, inflation explodes again, directly snuffing out the rate cut spark (15% probability).

#美联储FOMC会议 $BTC

If you want to delve deep into the crypto space but can't find a clue, and want to quickly get started to understand the information gap, click on my avatar to follow me, and gain first-hand information and in-depth analysis!