The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot indicates that the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year, with one cut each in 2026 and 2027; Powell states that the economy is robust and inflation remains high, with a moderate market response. (Background: U.S. CPI in May fell short of expectations, Trump calls for an immediate 1% rate cut to save on interest payments) (Additional context: It’s difficult for the Fed to cut rates early! U.S. non-farm employment in May exceeded expectations, Trump calls for a quick 100 basis point rate cut) Earlier today (19th), the Federal Reserve officially announced its June interest rate decision, declaring that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, consistent with previous market expectations. The unchanged interest rate and the dot plot reveal a rhythm of rate cuts. Notably, the latest dot plot shows that decision-makers expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points. The rates for 2026 and 2027 will each be lowered by 25 basis points. At the same time, the Fed has downgraded the median GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast to 3.1%, with the overall PCE adjusted to 3.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.5%, suggesting that inflation remains stubborn and the labor market may cool, which is not good news for the conditions for rate cuts. The Fed’s spokesperson and Powell discuss risks. Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street reporter regarded as the 'voice of the Fed,' pointed out that decision-makers choose to wait and see because both moving and not moving carry risks. Chairman Powell also emphasized at the press conference: 'The economy is in a robust state, and inflation levels have consistently been slightly above target.' Additionally, Powell specifically mentioned tariff issues, stating that they may exert pressure on the economy and push up inflation. Nick Timiraos commented: Powell summarized why the Fed expects prices to rise in the short term but finds it difficult to accurately predict the extent: someone has to bear the tariffs, but it is hard to determine who. 'There are producers, exporters, importers, retailers, and consumers — each party will try to avoid being the one who pays. But in the end, they might share the burden, or one party may bear it all.' Powell sums up why the Fed both expects prices to rise in the near term but has such difficulty forecasting the magnitude: Someone has to pay the tariff, but it's hard to know who. 'There's the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, and the consumer. And each… — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 18, 2025. The market's initial reaction is moderate. After the announcement, the four major U.S. stock indices showed little volatility, ending with mixed results: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% (44.14 points), closing at 42,171.66 points. The Nasdaq index rose 0.13% (25.18 points), closing at 19,546.27 points. The S&P 500 index fell 0.03% (1.85 points), closing at 5,980.87 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.52% (27.38 points), closing at 5,251.02 points. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $104,000 in the early morning but later rebounded to $104,959, showing a slight increase of 0.5% in nearly 24 hours. Related reports: Trump meets with Powell at the White House 'requesting the Fed to cut rates', Powell reiterates: The Fed adheres to non-political principles. U.S. April CPI hits a four-year low, Fed rate cut probability rises, Bitcoin tests $105,000, U.S. stocks rise. From tariff storms to unexpected CPI declines, can the Fed's rate cuts trigger a global asset frenzy? 'The Fed's June rates remain unchanged; what do Powell and the Fed's dot plot reveal? Bitcoin fluctuates around $105,000.' This article was originally published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

#BTC