Bitcoin continues to decline, dropping 6000 points in two days, hitting a low of around 103300, currently rebounding from an oversold position to around 105000. Yesterday I clearly reminded: Bitcoin breaking down with volume is a signal to go short, targeting the range of 103700 to 104400 below, as expected it declined. The sweet dream is to rebound near 104400 after Bitcoin stabilizes, gaining 800 points, and take profit at 105200.
BTC
The bullish momentum of Bitcoin at the four-hour level is weak, still showing weakness. The daily fluctuations are narrowing, the structure is converging, and there’s a signal of a significant shift with decreasing trading volume. In BTC over the last 4-24 hours, the main contract funds have been continuously flowing out, and the spot market is even worse, with essentially a net outflow over the past month; yesterday's ETF institutions barely had a net inflow of 216 million, and the market is basically being held up by ETF institutions. Once negative news or a war breaks out, BTC is very likely to head towards 9xxxx.
The maximum expected value for this pullback is first seen at 100900, which resonates with the originally key support at 101500. This is the position with the highest cost-effectiveness for going long.
Many fans ask if they can long on the rebound. Of course, rebounds can still be traded, and declines won't happen all at once; just lower your position to bet. Continue to trade near 103100. Quick in and out.
Bitcoin's positions for night trading, placing orders to catch the spikes and take the trend overnight. If BTC's price rebounds to around 106600 later, this is a high-profit and loss entry point for shorting. Do we still have a chance to enter at this 106600 point? I hope so.
ETH Ethereum's market fluctuates to the point where it scares you into selling. If those who short in the afternoon didn’t take profits, they would have no gains now. Those who went long are now profitable. The market is driven by news, and there was a Federal Reserve announcement overnight with significant volatility. I don’t want to gamble anymore... Scalping can lead to total losses if not done well, both longs and shorts can hit stop losses. Open the daily EMA 144/169 to look for low absorption opportunities, short-term watch for 2445/2380. There's not much else to say. The reversal or crash tonight at 2 AM regarding interest rates doesn’t look promising; 99.99% are betting on the rate staying the same, mainly waiting for Powell's speech. Recently, the international situation is severe; any escalation could impact the market, so it’s best to remain cautious. Only short-term trades are advisable, with proper stop losses, or your wallet could be attacked while you sleep.
My personal view: The news is likely negative, and I will continue to open shorts on the rebound. Given the current situation, it's hard to reach new highs; I insist on looking for a pullback.
Only by dropping down to consolidate and build a bottom, after a while Powell loosens and cuts interest rates, can we reach a new high. Meanwhile, altcoins will also rise. Currently, without good news, even if Bitcoin continues to rise, it is just the market makers transferring assets from left to right, and no one dares to follow. With such poor liquidity, even a fool wouldn't take the bait.
As long as the negative factors continue along with the current situation of the U.S. going into battle, there is always a possibility of triggering a black swan event leading to a big drop. Even if it goes up, it won't rise significantly, at most a stop loss of around 1,800 points, but a major drop resulting in a market of 10,000 points is also impossible.
On-chain Main Line
1. Pump issuance related: Alon, Trencher, Trenches, Cupsey
Pump was robbed right after the opening. Trenches group friends ambushed with 10%, no wonder it’s not rising. When asked, everyone had a bag, while the previously ignored Cupsey is performing better now. The meme of SOL, currently in a hell-level market environment.
2. USD1 trading competition related: EGL1, Janitor, Liberty, BULLA, Tag, CA
These assets are currently all in a unilateral decline; BSC is almost entirely down, averaging purchases is suicidal.
3. Base's ACP concept: Mamo, Brain, Swarm
The base ecosystem gives me a feeling of an avalanche; everything is falling; it has formed a unilateral downtrend. Noice and AR are both in a major decline. Recently, we discussed ARBUS, which is in a unilateral downtrend, but discussing ARBUS and AXR together seems to indicate an important asset.
4. AVAX Resurrection:
The strength of this resurrection is unknown; the overall AVAX market is synchronized with the larger market, sluggish, but there are also points of breakthrough like FOMO and Lambo that carry a lot of information asymmetry. It is difficult for ordinary retail investors to profit from it.
