Powell's Tone Tonight: Easing to Save the Market or Strangling Cryptocurrency? Trump Publicly Calls for a 100 Basis Point Rate Cut, Not 200 Basis Points

1. Core Logic of the Interest Rate Decision

> Dovish Signal: If Powell mentions 'economic risks rising' or 'data-dependent decision-making', it may hint at a rate cut path, pushing BTC to challenge the 106,000 resistance level (a key technical point).

> Hawkish Risk: If he emphasizes 'inflation stickiness exceeding expectations' or 'geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices', a stronger dollar may trigger a sell-off in the crypto market, and BTC could revisit the 103,000 support.

(Additional Commentary on the Impact of the Middle East Situation on Inflation: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, it could undermine the BTC 104,800–105,400 support zone)

2. Trump’s Commentary Correction and Background Supplement

> Trump has recently criticized Powell as Mr. Too Late, calling for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 100 basis points (not 200 basis points), claiming that the current interest rate policy is costing the country a fortune and raising government borrowing costs.

> (Deeper Motivation: Trump's trade policy requires a low-interest-rate environment to support it; a rate cut can alleviate debt pressure and stimulate the stock market)

3. Current Market Situation and Data Support

- New Key Indicators:

- Bitcoin currently at 105,461 (up 12.71% year-to-date), Ethereum at 2,535 (down 24.03% year-to-date);

- Fear and Greed Index at 48 (neutral), BTC long-short ratio at 1.12 (slightly bullish);

- If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, BTC is expected to break through 106,000 to start a new rally.

4. Non-Strict Investment Guidance

- Objective Suggestions:

> Short-term operations need to be cautious of a spike in volatility: Historical volatility often exceeds 30% in the first hour after the Federal Reserve's decision, allowing for positions in volatility derivatives (such as BTC options) or stablecoin arbitrage.

> Mid to long-term allocations should focus on compliant main lines: The passage of the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill is favorable for institutional inflows into ETH spot ETFs (net inflow of 110 million in a single week).#美联储FOMC会议 #鲍威尔发言 #特朗普接受比特币和加密货币作为总统竞选捐赠渠道